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Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting (Advances in Tourism Research)
Manufacturer: Pergamon
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ASIN: 0080436730 |
Book Description
The phenomenal growth of both the world-wide tourism industry and academic interest in tourism over the last thirty years has generated great interest in tourism demand modelling and forecasting from both sectors. However, the tendency for researchers and practitioners engaged in quantitative causal tourism modelling and forecasting to run many regression equations and try to choose the 'best' model based on various parametric and non-parametric criteria has been widely criticised as failing to provide credible results. The aim of this book is to present the recent advances in econometric modelling methodology within the context of tourism demand analysis at a level that is accessible to non-specialists, and to illustrate these new developments with actual tourism applications.
The book begins with an introduction to the fundamentals of tourism demand analysis, before addressing the problems of traditional tourism demand modelling and forecasting, i.e. data mining and spurious regression due to common trends in the time series. Three chapters explore the general-to-specific approach to tourism demand modelling and forecasting, including the use of autoregressive distributed lag processes, cointegration analysis and error correction models. The time varying parameter model together with the use of the Kalman filter as an estimation method is a useful tool for examining the effects of regime shifts on tourism demand elasticities: this is explored next. The panel data approach is introduced as a way of overcoming the problem of estimation and forecasting biases caused by insufficient time series data. The book concludes by evaluating the empirical forecasting performance of the various models and putting forward some general conclusions.
Book Description
Many optimization questions arise in economics and finance; an important example of this is the society's choice of the optimum state of the economy (the social choice problem). Optimization in Economics and Finance extends and improves the usual optimization techniques, in a form that may be adopted for modeling social choice problems. Problems discussed include: when is an optimum reached; when is it unique; relaxation of the conventional convex (or concave) assumptions on an economic model; associated mathematical concepts such as invex and quasimax; multiobjective optimal control models; and related computational methods and programs. These techniques are applied to economic growth models (including small stochastic perturbations), finance and financial investment models (and the interaction between financial and production variables), modeling sustainability over long time horizons, boundary (transversality) conditions, and models with several conflicting objectives. Although the applications are general and illustrative, the models in this book provide examples of possible models for a society's social choice for an allocation that maximizes welfare and utilization of resources. As well as using existing computer programs for optimization of models, a new computer program, named SCOM, is presented in this book for computing social choice models by optimal control.
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Optimisation, Econometric and Financial Analysis (Advances in Computational Management Science)
Manufacturer: Springer
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ASIN: 3540366253 |
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Advances in Econometrics and Modelling (Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics)
Manufacturer: Springer
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ASIN: 0792302990 |
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Analyses in Macroeconomic Modelling (ADVANCES IN COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS Volume 12) (Advances in Computational Economics)
Manufacturer: Springer
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ASIN: 0792385985 |
Book Description
Macroeconomic Modelling has undergone radical changes in the last few years. There has been considerable innovation in developing robust solution techniques for the new breed of increasingly complex models. Similarly there has been a growing consensus on their long run and dynamic properties, as well as much development on existing themes such as modelling expectations and policy rules. This edited volume focuses on those areas which have undergone the most significant and imaginative developments and brings together the very best of modelling practice.
We include specific sections on (I) Solving Large Macroeconomic Models, (II) Rational Expectations and Learning Approaches, (III) Macro Dynamics, and (IV) Long Run and Closures. All of the contributions offer new research whilst putting their developments firmly in context and as such will influence much future research in the area. It will be an invaluable text for those in policy institutions as well as academics and advanced students in the fields of economics, mathematics, business and government. Our contributors include those working in central banks, the IMF, European Commission and established academics.
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Computational Techniques for Modelling Learning in Economics (Advances in Computational Economics)
Manufacturer: Springer
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ASIN: 0792385039 |
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Computational Techniques for Modelling Learning in Economics offers a critical overview of the computational techniques that are frequently used for modelling learning in economics. It is a collection of papers, each of which focuses on a different way of modelling learning, including the techniques of evolutionary algorithms, genetic programming, neural networks, classifier systems, local interaction models, least squares learning, Bayesian learning, boundedly rational models and cognitive learning models. Each paper describes the technique it uses, gives an example of its applications, and discusses the advantages and disadvantages of the technique. Hence, the book offers some guidance in the field of modelling learning in computation economics. In addition, the material contains state-of-the-art applications of the learning models in economic contexts such as the learning of preference, the study of bidding behaviour, the development of expectations, the analysis of economic growth, the learning in the repeated prisoner's dilemma, and the changes of cognitive models during economic transition. The work even includes innovative ways of modelling learning that are not common in the literature, for example the study of the decomposition of task or the modelling of cognitive learning.
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Continuous Time Econometric Modelling (Recent Advances in Econometrics)
A. R. Bergstrom
Manufacturer: Oxford University Press, USA
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Econometric Advances in Spatial Modelling and Methodology: Essays in Honour of Jean Paelinck (Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics)
Manufacturer: Springer
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ASIN: 0792349156 |
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This volume is in honour of the remarkable career of the Father of Spatial Econometrics, Professor Jean Paelinck, presently of the Tinbergen Institute, Rotterdam. Jean Paelinck, arguably, is the founder of modern spatial econometrics. The impact on the profession through his work in spatial econometrics, regional science, and more conventional economics can be measured in many ways: through the work of his students, his devotion to and activism in facilitating the diffusion of regional science to Poland, the formulation and development of his FLEUR model, his co-founding of the French-speaking Regional Science Association, the voluminous references to his scholarly publications, his many invitations to be a featured speaker at conferences and universities throughout the world, the offices he has held in scholarly and professional associations, Erasmus University Rotterdam and the Netherlands Economic Institute, and the numerous honorary degrees he has been awarded.
A series of special sessions in honour of Jean Paelinck were organized at the most prominent regional science meetings around the world. A number of prominent scholars in the field organized and participated in special sessions labelled `In Honour of Professor Paelinck.' These sessions reflect a truly global reach of the techniques and methods pioneered by him. As an outgrowth of six conferences final versions of the selection of papers are collected in this volume. Prominent ideas contained in each of the selected contributions can be traced explicitly to work by Jean Paelinck.
Book Description
40 beaded earring designs for brickstitch. Clear directions are given, and color photos of the finished earrings. Designs include: Japanese Crane, Heron, Hummingbird, Fire Serpent, Donkey and more.
Well suited for the beginning beader.
Customer Reviews:
an earfull of design.......2006-02-23
I am grateful for the color pictures. Some of the patterns are great. the others are not exactly my taste.
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- How the Republican Party Lost A Leading Moderate Voice
- Respect the man, question the decision
- A good, quick read - by a man with a plan!
- Great Book!
- An inside look at a controversial shift in political power
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My Declaration of Independence
James M. Jeffords
Manufacturer: Simon & Schuster
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Leadership Is an Art
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Into Thin Air: A Personal Account of the Mt. Everest Disaster
ASIN: 0743228421 |
Book Description
Senator James Jeffords of Vermont left the Republican Party on May 24, 2001, when he could no longer reconcile his beliefs with the policies of the party he had supported his whole adult life. "Looking ahead," Jeffords said, "I can see more and more instances where I will disagree with the President on very fundamental issues."
In My Declaration of Independence, Jeffords explains the issues that led to this dramatic break. Foremost among them was the Bush Administration's and the Republican leadership's failure to recognize the need to invest in education, now and in the future.
Tracing the genesis of his decision, Jeffords describes his attempts to effect change within his party, and the pain of hurting Republican colleagues and friends. His decision came just at the moment when his defection would deprive them of the Washington trifecta they had recently achieved -- Republican control of the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives. It was also going to cost many of his friends committee chairmanships they had acquired only a few months before. "But in the end," he writes, "I had to be true to what I thought was right, and leave the consequences to sort themselves out in the days ahead."
In a contemporary Profiles in Courage, Senator Jeffords provides a moving, witty, and instructive example of what can happen in public life. Whether you agree with his views or not, his account of his tough decisions, and of his anguish at rejecting the last-minute appeals of the leadership of his party, the President, and his wife, is a riveting story that has wide implications for the whole country.
Customer Reviews:
How the Republican Party Lost A Leading Moderate Voice.......2006-06-24
As a Pennsylvania state legislative leader, I have suffered a demotion from Majority Whip to Minority Caucus Chairman for the past twelve years because several Democrats switched to the Republican Party in 1993 and 1994 and turned the Pennsylvania House over to the Republicans. Two of those converts were then defeated by Democratic nominees, but two others were not, and having the majority helped the Pennsylvania Republicans gain other seats.
So I read the story of Jeffords' abandonment of the party that elected him, and his turning control of the U.S. Senate over to the Democrats, with a sense of having seen this before. Policy differences lead to personal confrontations and personal slights which, in turn, raise new questions about partisan commitments. The chance to play a starring role in the new party seems preferable to being an outcast in the old party. The change is made, and old alliances and friendships are sundered, while new ones are made.
Running for re-election after a party switch can be tricky, but Jeffords, with four years left on his Senate term, "doubted" that he would be running again in 2006. In fact, he did not run again this year. With re-election clearly not a top priority for him--"it was the furthest thing from my thoughts at that point," he says--a major obstacle to swictching parties was removed.
The Jeffords switch came in May, 200l. George Bush had been elected President in key respects by a 5 to 4 U.S. Supreme Court decision stopping the counting of votes in Florida where Bush held a lead of only a little more than 500 votes. The Democrats had gained four seats in the U.S. Senate in the 2000 elections, and the parties were now evenly divided in the Senate. It seemed quite possible that the Democrats had a future of surging ahead.
Further, although he does not mention it, his home state clearly was trending Democratic, with Howard Dean as Governor, Patrick Leahy as the other U.S. Senator, and Bernie Sanders, a self-proclaimed socialist who often sided with the Democrats, repeatedly elected with Democratic support as an Independent. For some reason, Sanders' name is never mentioned in this book; in 2006, he was the winning Democratic-backed candidate to succeed Jefords.
Jeffords had leverage in the budget negotiations, and was determined to use it. He decided his top priority, as chair of the Senate committee dealing with education, was giving new life to the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) by increasing special education funding by removing $200 billion a year from President Bush's tax cut and paying "40 percent of the national average per public expenditure for each disabled child's education."
This formulation comes out to about 20% of total national special education expenses.
Jeffords was motivated by personal values and constituent accountability in pushing his educational program. He did not share the belief that tax cuts for the wealthy were the highest Republican priority.
"But how our children lag behind their international peers strikes me as a bigger long-term threat to our national security and stability than the rate of taxation paid on multimillion dollar estates," he writes. "In my mind, the education we give to all our children is far more important than the size of the fortunes left to a fortunate few...."
"But tax cuts had not been what animated the people of Vermont I talked to on the campaign trail in the fall," he says. "They seemed to be far more concerned with meeeting human needs."
Ultimately, the Senate Republicans were able to regain the Senate control in the 2002 and 2004 elections, returning Jeffords to minority status and reducing the significance of his action. This book makes clear Jefford's enjoyment of being in the limelight, even though he was somewhat uncomfortable at times there. I cannot help but believe that the "Who Lost Jeffords?" question was likely a contributing factor in Trent Lott's being removed as Senate majority leader after the 2004 elections.
This is a good short book for anyone interested in the differences between Democrats and Republicans in the U.S. Senate, the history of Vermont Senators, or the personal dynamics of the U.S. Senate, to read carefully. Jeffords clearly identifies with the Republican Party of Abraham Lincoln, Theodore Roosevelt, and Vermont Senators George Aiken and Ralph Flanders, critics of the War in Vietnam and Sen. Joseph McCarthy repsectively. It is the modern Republicans he has difficulty with.
"There was an admixture of religion, a sense of stewardship, and plain common sense," he writes. "....(T)he issues that gave birth to the Republican Party are still among our most important challenges. Will we strenghten public education and the ladder of opportunity it provides? Or will be decide through our funding decisions that this is not a very high federal priority? Will we leave the land better than we found it for our descendants a hundred and fifty years hence? Or will we be blinded by the ensuing crises and leave it despoiled? Will we accord full rights to all Americans? Or will we continue to condone the denial of the protections of our laws to those who are gay?
"It is clear what I hope for. This is the kind of Washington I hope to forge with what little influence is available to me. We have crying needs in our society that we must tackle rather than ignore. And we can never even begin if we are consumed by trying to take petty partisan advantage at every opportunity. The American people will not stand for it."
When the Republican Party lost Jeffords, they lost a lot. He is typical of some voters. And I believe listening intently to his views would add a great deal to the Bush Administration and any successor administration. The negative, petty, and personal attacks on Jeffords that helped motivate him to leave the Republican Party are a case of a the quest for power overwhelming more lasting and important factors.
Respect the man, question the decision.......2006-04-29
Senator James Jeffords of Vermont was a man with a difficult decision to make. He was going to leave the Republican Party - and eventually did on May 24, 2001 - when he could no longer keep his political allegiance with those he previously had. His believed his thoughts to be different than that of the Republican party at the time, and he felt that it would only worsen.
In My Declaration of Independence, Jeffords discusses the days leading up the decision, the catalyst being his ardent support for an education proposition that others were/are ignoring.
Jeffords attempts to let the reader understand his frame of mind leading up to the decision and the speech, leaving his Republican party, friends, and colleagues. His decision was a difficult one, with many of his family members and staff facing an uncertain political future.
His decision would change the political landscape, shifting power from the Republicans to the Democrats; Jeffords knew it. And it is this reason why the book was slightly disingenuous to me. The decision, the shift, the process all seemed to be about Jeffords. It seems to me that the wiser decision would have been to change from the inside, attempt to influence those with whom he has some influence.
While I may not agree with his politics or his decision, I can still admire and respect the man for his willingness to stick to his guns. The pace, the descriptions, and the inside look at political machinery was well worth the read.
The only major problem I have with this book is that it points to a problem with the way American representatives are elected: Their actions don't necessarily reflect what their constituents want. By changing parties, Jeffords abandoned many of those who voted for him. The fact that he wore rose-colored glasses for a good period of time after the event doesn't change a thing; he made a lot of people very mad, and betrayed the very ideas that many used their votes to support. I admire the man, but not the decision.
A good, quick read - by a man with a plan!.......2003-09-02
I enjoyed reading this book. It didn't take long and Senator Jeffords has much to say. I liked that he appears honest (am I kidding myself?) and was sincere in voicing his own opinions, which in this day and age can be political suicide. I am planning on passing this book along to others.
Great Book!.......2003-07-02
I really enjoyed Sen. Jefford's Book. I bought it with no expectations and was surprised at how thoughtful it was. Kudos to him for speaking his mind!
An inside look at a controversial shift in political power.......2003-01-22
Like many Americans I quickly formed an opinion when Senator Jeffries from Vermont suddenly switched parties from the Republican Party to an Independent. This switch from this one Senator shifted the balance of power away from the Republican Party until the elections in 2002. At the time I thought it was a very selfish act on the part of Jeffries, and should have been against regulations to switch from the party you were voted in on. I picked up this book to see if my conclusions were wrong.
The book is well written in first person, and the events unfold at a dizzying pace. If you ever really wanted to know what happens in the governments leadership of our country, this book provides some insights. As much as I have a distaste for "office politics", I now know a life of public service as a Senator is out of the question. Jeffries seems to spend all his time walking from office to office, from meeting to meeting, trying to cut deals and get agreements on a tax allocation. Other than the occasional dinner and trip, this is all that he seems to do. It is a good look at how our political body operates. He details the slow and inevitable conclusion he comes to when he cannot convince his fellow Republicans to fund education.
The slow and gradual widening of the ideological gap between Jeffries and his Party seems to be led by no less than a desire to stand up for his beliefs. This is certainly an honorable stance, and I found myself agreeing with his conclusions. To be blunt, if I consider the position he was trying to fight for, I would have to agree with him! In this regard I found the book to be most enlightening.
However, when reading through his thought process I came to the following conclusion: the shift was about Jeffries, not about the issue of education. He admits that the education spending he was trying to push through wasn't going to get through anyway. So does he work inside his party to help bridge the gap between the two political parties struggling to find common ground? No, he simply does what he wants to do personally by becoming an independent, in the process in fact widening the very gap he was trying to close.
This is a very good book, and a quick and interesting read. At first glance his position is honorable, and his ideas are sound. In the end though, despite the initial pain of his choice, he took the easier way out. I would have had more respect for an approach to hang in there and try and to change and influence his party, considering he was only there in the first place because the voters of Vermont allowed him in as a Republican. That fact alone makes his decision a decision of self and not for the people. The book is a great read though, and a good look behind the scenes at the politics of government.
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A book of Americana - songs, poems, biographical sketches; the things that made America - America! Wonderful book for those in or out of school
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- Accurate, Excellent and Funny!!!!
|
My Declarations Of Independence
Paul Wayne DeVillier
Manufacturer: Outskirts Press, Inc.
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ASIN: 1932672168 |
Book Description
A rich collection of essays, research and opinion papers on the state and issue of Social Sciences in schools today. Two chapters are historical only, providing the reader information on why we are here in Social Sciences today."America's Chest of Treasures" is the heart and soul of the book providing a heart-warming glimpse into everything that is/was American. It is also a fitting tribute to President Ronald Reagan's "City On A Hill." Other chapters visit current issues in Social Sciences. Dr. DeVillier combines his insights with other experts to propose solutions to Social Science problems.
Customer Reviews:
Accurate, Excellent and Funny!!!!.......2004-09-21
This guy has a gift for taking some material the general public might consider "sorry, not interested in", and does an absolutely wonderful job in putting this in an easy to read, enjoyable format. He tells the truth, whether it is politically correct or not! He pulls no punches and gives no awards. In doing his book this way, he really does not seem to care what higher ups have to say about his life's work. This writing is similar to those of Howard Zinn and Noam Chomsky, although that is very exclusive company to be put in with. He handles that challenge with poise, dignity and a sense of honesty that is sorely needed in the field of education.
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A Little Norsk or Ol' Pap's Flaxen
Hamlin Garland
Manufacturer: Kessinger Publishing, LLC
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ASIN: 054801552X |
Book Description
1892. Hamlin Garland was born near La Crosse, Wisconsin and lived in the area for nine years before his family moved to South Dakota. As an adult he lived in major cities throughout the United States but visited his birthplace often. In 1922 he received a Pulitzer Prize for A Daughter of the Middle Border, and was also director of the American Academy of Arts and Letters for a number of years. Contents: Her Adoptive Parents; Her First Trip in a Blizzard; The Burial of her Dead Mother; Flaxen Adopts Anson as Pap; Flaxen Becomes Indispensable to the Two Old Bachelors; A Question of Dress; After Harvest; An Empty House; Baching it Again; Flaxen Comes Home on a Vacation; Flaxen Grows Restless; Flaxen Says Good-bye; Flaxen's Great Need; Kendall Steps Out; and Bert Comes Back. See other titles by this author available from Kessinger Publishing.
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