Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition
Average customer rating: 4.5 out of 5 stars
  • Packed with Knowledge!
  • A fool, his money and the bridge that parted them.......
Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition
Bent Flyvbjerg , Nils Bruzelius , and Werner Rothengatter
Manufacturer: Cambridge University Press
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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  1. Mega-Projects: The Changing Politics of Urban Public Investment Mega-Projects: The Changing Politics of Urban Public Investment
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ASIN: 0521009464

Book Description

Promoters of multi-billion dollar land-use development megaprojects systematically misinform parliaments, the public and the media in order to get them approved and built. This book not only explores these issues, but suggests practical solutions drawing on theory and scientific evidence from the several hundred projects in twenty nations and five continents. It is of interest to students, scholars, planners, economists, auditors, politicians and concerned citizens.

Customer Reviews:

5 out of 5 stars Packed with Knowledge!.......2004-03-02

Every once in a while a little book comes along that, while small in size, carries sufficient intellectual weight to strike the body politic between the eyes, thereby getting its collective attention. This may be one such book. It offers a realistic look at megaprojects - those major infrastructure endeavors that span vast bodies of water, dam natural resources to generate energy and extend rail lines to previously unreachable regions - and compares the promises of these projects to what they actually deliver. The report card isn't very good. Cost overruns are typically 25% to 100%, and sometimes 200% or more. Worse yet, studies show that the public tends to use megaprojects - be they airports or subway systems - only a fraction of the amount predicted. We strongly recommends this book to politicians, legislators and anyone who wants to know the truth behind these huge infrastructure projects, as well as to CEOs, CFOs, project managers and risk officers in the private sector - this applies to your projects, even if there is a difference of scale.

4 out of 5 stars A fool, his money and the bridge that parted them..............2003-09-13

I am the first amazon.com reviewer of this short, but important book. It concerns me that this might reflect a diminished U.S. readership. That would be unfortunate. Professor Bent Flyvbjerg and his colleagues have written a book of significance to taxpayers everywhere. It's apparent that they have written this book largely for the policy-maker; yet, make no mistake about it: the ordinary taxpayer has a major stake in this book's message. The central characters in Megaprojects and Risk are three large-scale, European transportation projects: the Chunnel, the Great Belt and the Oresund. American readers unfamilar with these names (the chunnel connecting London and Paris is perhaps the most recognizable to American readers) will nonetheless recognize familiar features. Specifically, they will find project costs that exceed estimates, and revenue inflows that are below projections. The traits are not unique to these projects. In fact, cost over-runs and revenue disappointments are a familiar global refrain, according to these authors. In spite of this, the number and scale of infrastructure projects continues to grow, forming what they call the megaproject paradox. The book is stronger on documenting problems, including the lack of project post-audits, than on providing solutions. I think they have correctly identified the problem -- the lack of accountability throughout the project life-cycle -- but their solution, which largely involves ensuring a healthy segment of private capital not supported by state guarantees, together with more attention to genuine risk assessment, falls short of the mark. The risk assessment tools are firmly established and largely well-understood (Monte Carlo simulation packages are increasingly available). So is the "moral hazard" problem that rears its ugly head when projects (in this case) are "over-insured." The difficulty, which they acknowledge, is that the political interplay between state, private interests and NGOs are decisive in determining whether and to what extent the appropriate risk assessment and risk management tools are used.

This problem is inherent in the beast. Policy-makers would love for the private sector to shoulder the risk, but may not be willing to permit a commensurate return. Private players, just as understandably, are apt to seek insurance of one kind or another on the downside. The best medicine, and one that this book delivers admirably, is simply to raise our awareness of the track record from the start.

This short book has the look and feel of an academic work. It would, however, be unfortunate if it languished at the university bookstore. Global demographics dictate that larger-scale infrastructure investments are in our future. No one should pay for, promote or plan for such projects before they have digested the lessons in Megaprojects and Risk.
Bargaining With Uncertainty: Decision-Making in Public Health, Technologial Safety, and Environmental Quality
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    Bargaining With Uncertainty: Decision-Making in Public Health, Technologial Safety, and Environmental Quality
    Merrie G. Klapp
    Manufacturer: Auburn House
    ProductGroup: Book
    Binding: Hardcover

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    ASIN: 0865690464

    Book Description

    In this intriguing volume, Merrie G. Klapp explains how regulatory decisions in such crucial areas as public health, technological safety, and environmental quality are molded and recast. She finds that "scientific uncertainty" is a key factor, with agencies, interest groups, Congress, and the courts attempting to shift responsibility of proof or varying the standard of proof according to the pressures brought to bear on the issue. In general, Professor Klapp finds that when citizens or industrialists organize to protest a regulatory decision and when the legislature or the courts take scientific uncertainty into account, then the initial regulatory decision is changed. By contrast with the United States, where scientific uncertainty is used as a public resource and rationale for change, in France and Britain scientific uncertainty is treated as a private resource. French and British scientists do not treat regulatory decisions as opportunities to reveal scientific uncertainty to the public--instead, discussions of uncertainties are held behind "closed doors" and, when reports are made to the public about regulatory decisions, scientific information is presented as if it were certain. Bargaining with Uncertainty will be a provocative analysis to those scholars and researchers concerned with the making of public policy as well as those concerned with risk assessment in public health, the environment, and technology.
    Learning to Manage Global Environmental Risks, Vol. 1: A Comparative History of Social Responses to Climate Change, Ozone Depletion, and Acid Rain (Politics, Science, and the Environment)
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      Learning to Manage Global Environmental Risks, Vol. 1: A Comparative History of Social Responses to Climate Change, Ozone Depletion, and Acid Rain (Politics, Science, and the Environment)
      Social Learning Group , Jill Jaeger , Josee van Eijndhoven , and Nancy Dickson
      Manufacturer: The MIT Press
      ProductGroup: Book
      Binding: Paperback

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      ASIN: 0262692384

      Book Description

      This long-awaited two-volume book examines how the interplay of ideas and actions applied to environmental problems has laid the foundations for global environmental management. It looks at how ideas, interests, and institutions affect management practice; how management capabilities in other areas affect the ability to deal with specific environmental issues; and how learning affects society's approach to the global environment.

      The book focuses on efforts to deal with climate change, ozone depletion, and acid rain from 1957 (The International Geophysical Year) through 1992 (the UN Conference on Environment and Development). The settings include Canada, Germany, Hungary, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, the former Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, and international environmental organizations. Topics include problem framing, agenda setting, issue attention, risk assessment, monitoring, option assessment, goal and strategy formulation, implementation, and evaluation. Volume 1 provides an overview of the project, of global environmental management in general, and of the three central environmental issues studied; it also contains the individual country studies. Volume 2 contains the management function studies and the book's conclusion.

      Authors in the set include: Jeannine Cavender-Bares, William C. Clark, Ellis Cowling, Nancy M. Dickson, Gerda Dinkelman, Rodney Dobell, Renate Ell, Adam Fenech, Alexander Ginzburg, Elena Goncharova, Peter Haas, Eva Hizsnyik, Michael Huber, Peter Hughes, Jill Jäger, Marc Levy, Angela Liberatore, Diana Liverman, Justin Longo, David McCabe, Donald Munton, Elena Nikitina, Karen O'Brien, Edward Parson, Vladimir Pisarev, Ruud Pleune, Miranda Schreurs, Simon Shackley, Peter Simmons, Heather Smith, Vassily Sokolov, Ferenc L. Tóth, Jeroen van der Sluijs, Josee van Eijndhoven, Claire Waterton, Cor Worrell, and Brian Wynne.

      More information is available from the SLG web site.
      The Tolerability of Risk: A New Framework for Risk Management (Earthscan Risk and Society Series)
      Average customer rating: Not rated
        The Tolerability of Risk: A New Framework for Risk Management (Earthscan Risk and Society Series)

        Manufacturer: Earthscan Publications Ltd.
        ProductGroup: Book
        Binding: Hardcover

        MicroeconomicsMicroeconomics | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
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        ASIN: 184407398X

        Book Description

        The book provides a historical and topical perspective on the alternative concept of Tolerability of Risk and its concrete regulatory applications. In the UK, Tolerability of Risk has been developed into a sophisticated framework particularly within the health and safety sectors. It is expected to guide decisionmakers when applying their legal obligation of keeping risks as low as practically reasonable. Could Tolerability of Risk become a wider source of inspiration across the full scope of risk analysis and management?

        Written by leading academics and risk practitioners from industry and government, the book presents a summary of theoretical perspectives on risk approaches, provides a detailed elicitation of the methods and approaches used to build the Tolerability of Risk framework and looks at the prospect for universal application of the framework across a wide area of risk. From nuclear power to air and environmental pollutants to climate change to drug testing, this strategy may offer a workable, pragmatic solution for balancing risks against the costs involved in controlling them as well as in developing the institutional capacity to make effective decisions in all jurisdictions worldwide.

        The Tolerability of Risk is essential, cutting-edge reading for all academics, researchers, professionals and decisions makers working in the treacherous landscape of risk analysis, cost-benefit calculations, and risk reduction, management, and regulation.
        Risk Society and the Culture of Precaution
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          Risk Society and the Culture of Precaution

          Manufacturer: Palgrave Macmillan
          ProductGroup: Book
          Binding: Hardcover

          Policy & Current EventsPolicy & Current Events | Popular Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
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          ASIN: 1403996954
          Release Date: 2006-12-26

          Book Description

          Modern societies have been termed risk societies. Western culture obviously is unable to cope with too much uncertainty. Risk management has become a paradigm for good governance and prudent policies. Further sociological analysis reveals that those who stand in for the fight against risks often turn out to be the ones who cause them. We therefore not only need to rethink our concepts of accountability; we also need to sharpen our political tools of defence against imminent threats.
          Protecting Public Health and the Environment: Implementing The Precautionary Principle
          Average customer rating: 4.5 out of 5 stars
          • A neutral guideline to understand the principle
          • On Target but Fragmented--Needs New Edition with Summary
          • Ambitious and full of food for thought
          Protecting Public Health and the Environment: Implementing The Precautionary Principle

          Manufacturer: Island Press
          ProductGroup: Book
          Binding: Paperback

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          ASIN: 1559636882

          Book Description

          The movement toward creating more sustainable communities has been growing for decades, and in recent years has gained new prominence with theincreasing visibility of planning approaches such as the New Urbanism. Yet there are few examples of successful and time-tested sustainable communities.

          Village Homes outside of Davis, California offers one such example. Built between 1975 and 1981 on 60 acres of land, it offers unique features including extensive common areas and green space; community gardens, orchards, and vineyards; narrow streets; pedestrian and bike paths; solar homes; and an innovative ecological drainage system. Authors Michael and Judy Corbett were intimately involved with the design, development, and building of Village Homes, and have resided there since 1977.

          In Designing Sustainable Communities, they examine the history of the sustainable community movement and discuss how Village Homes fits into the context of that movement. They offer an inside look at the development of the project from start to finish, describing how the project came about, obstacles that needed to be overcome, design approaches they took, problems that were encountered and how those problems were solved, and changes that have occurred over the years. In addition, they compare Village Homes with other communities and developments across the country, and discuss the future prospects for the continued growth of the sustainable communities movement.

          The book offers detailed information on a holistic approach to designing and building successful communities. It represents an invaluable guide for professionals and students involved with planning, architecture, development, and landscape architecture, and for anyone interested increating more sustainable communities.

          Customer Reviews:

          4 out of 5 stars A neutral guideline to understand the principle.......2002-02-28

          The book has indicated the underlying theory, substantial framework for the implementation of the pinciple, and the practice of the p.p. in international society. Overall, most articles have done good job in describing their appraisal of the principle. I strongly recommend the book because of those authors' enthusiasms in advocating the application of the precautionary principle to address the scientific uncertainty. Even some of the articles cite insufficient information to support their points.

          4 out of 5 stars On Target but Fragmented--Needs New Edition with Summary.......2001-06-02

          This is the second best of several books on environmental policy I have reviewed, and it merits careful scrutiny in part because it brings together a number of expert authors and there is in essence "something for everyone" in this edited work. What is lacks, though, is a good summary chapter that lists how the "precautionary principle" should be applied across each of the top ten environmental areas of concern--something that could circulate more easily than the book, and perhaps have a beneficial policy impact at the local, state, and national levels--and I suggest this because the meat of the book is good, it needs an executive summary.

          The chapter that was most meaningful to me, the one that I think needs to be migrated into business education, international affairs education, science & technology policy education, is by Gordon K. Durnil, Chapter 16, and it deal with "How Much Information Do We Need Before Exercising Precaution." This is a brilliant piece of work that dissects our current environmental policy information collection, processing, and analysis system, and finds it very deceptive, disingenuous, and consequently seriously flawed.

          For the best on the environment, read "Pandora's Poison". For the best on public health, read "Betrayal of Trust." For a very fine cross-over book that has good chapters from various good people, this is the book to buy and enjoy.

          5 out of 5 stars Ambitious and full of food for thought.......2000-07-02

          "Protecting Human Health and the Environment" discusses what is involved in coming up with a meaningful, workable definition of the "precautionary principle." It also talks about how this principle (which comes down to the "First, do no harm" of Hippocrates) can be given effect in environmental policy, law, and specific problems. The book is a collection of articles that were first presented at the Wingspread Conference in 1998. This variety of voices and perspectives is one of the real strengths of the book: the precautionary principle is a huge idea that involves some fundamental shifts in American thinking about science, nature, and environmental protection; and this is the first book I've read which really manages to convey that. Those who think that the "precautionary principle" is another enviro plot to co-opt American policy and advance unfounded, neo-Luddite agendas really need to read this book. It is rich in thought-provoking ideas, backed up by meticulous review of existing policy, law, and science -- powerful without being dogmatic, sincere without being cloying. And those who grasp the severity of the threats to sustainability facing human society should find a deeply coherent, beautifully articulate means of responding to these threats. Unlike many of the sweeping solutions advance over the years to the human inability to moderate its behavior for the good of the whole, implementation of the precautionary principle actually seems possible! Indeed, it is already being pursued. Let's hope that lots of courageous and energetic folks get their hands on this one.
          Should We Risk It?: Exploring Environmental, Health, and Technological Problem Solving
          Average customer rating: 4 out of 5 stars
          • Excellent Introductory Text on Risk Assessment
          • Good but more explanation needed.
          Should We Risk It?: Exploring Environmental, Health, and Technological Problem Solving
          Daniel M. Kammen , and David M. Hassenzahl
          Manufacturer: Princeton University Press
          ProductGroup: Book
          Binding: Paperback

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          ASIN: 0691074577

          Book Description

          How dangerous is smoking? What are the risks of nuclear power or of climate change? What are the chances of dying on an airplane? More importantly, how do we use this information once we have it? The demand for risk analysts who are able to answer such questions has grown exponentially in recent years. Yet programs to train these analysts have not kept pace. In this book, Daniel Kammen and David Hassenzahl address that problem. They draw together, organize, and seek to unify previously disparate theories and methodologies connected with risk analysis for health, environmental, and technological problems. They also provide a rich variety of case studies and worked problems, meeting the growing need for an up-to-date book suitable for teaching and individual learning.

          The specific problems addressed in the book include order-of-magnitude estimation, dose-response calculations, exposure assessment, extrapolations and forecasts based on experimental or natural data, modeling and the problems of complexity in models, fault-tree analysis, managing and estimating uncertainty, and social theories of risk and risk communication. The authors cover basic and intermediate statistics, as well as Monte Carlo methods, Bayesian analysis, and various techniques of uncertainty and forecast evaluation. The volume's unique approach will appeal to a wide range of people in environmental science and studies, health care, and engineering, as well as to policy makers confronted by the increasing number of decisions requiring risk and cost/benefit analysis. Should We Risk It? will become a standard text in courses involving risk and decision analysis and in courses of applied statistics with a focus on environmental and technological issues.

          Customer Reviews:

          5 out of 5 stars Excellent Introductory Text on Risk Assessment.......2000-08-19

          Written in a straightforward and almost conversational style, this book provides an introductory text on the topic of risk assessment. The book describes complex concepts in simple language and is thus effective in presenting the subject matter, Moreover, the exercises within each chapter are clearly designed to reinforce understanding of the topics covered. Overall, an excellent book for a student of risk assessment.

          3 out of 5 stars Good but more explanation needed........2000-03-22

          This book provides a lot of good example problems in the field of environmental risk assessment. However, it seems to lack follow-up discussion of the case studies. It is intended, perhaps, that the reader would work through the problems and then perhaps discuss them as in a class situation. There are questions following the problems that might be considered adequate to lead the reader to the point the authors were trying to make. Nonetheless, it would help the cohesiveness if there were some discussion of the problems rather than just going from one to the next.
          Acceptable Evidence: Science and Values in Risk Management (Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series)
          Average customer rating: Not rated
            Acceptable Evidence: Science and Values in Risk Management (Environmental Ethics and Science Policy Series)

            Manufacturer: Oxford University Press, USA
            ProductGroup: Book
            Binding: Paperback

            Decision-Making & Problem SolvingDecision-Making & Problem Solving | Management & Leadership | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
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            ASIN: 0195089294

            Book Description

            Discussions of science and values in risk management have largely focused on how values enter into arguments about risks, that is, issues of acceptable risk. Instead this volume concentrates on how values enter into collecting, interpreting, communicating, and evaluating the evidence of risks, that is, issues of the acceptability of evidence of risk. By focusing on acceptable evidence, this volume avoids two barriers to progress. One barrier assumes that evidence of risk is largely a matter of objective scientific data and therefore uncontroversial. The other assumes that evidence of risk, being "just" a matter of values, is not amenable to reasoned critique. Denying both extremes, this volume argues for a more constructive conclusion: understanding the interrelations of scientific and value issues enables a critical scrutiny of risk assessments and better public deliberation about social choices. The contributors, distinguished philosophers, policy analysts, and natural and social scientists, analyze environmental and medical controversies, and assumptions underlying views about risk assessment and the scientific and statistical models used in risk management.
            But Is It True?: A Citizens Guide to Environmental Health and Safety Issues
            Average customer rating: 4 out of 5 stars
            • The sky is falling...or is it?
            • A Reasoned Discussion of Environmental Issues
            • A MUST Read!
            • Don't be fooled by this book
            But Is It True?: A Citizens Guide to Environmental Health and Safety Issues
            Aaron Wildavsky
            Manufacturer: Harvard University Press
            ProductGroup: Book
            Binding: Hardcover

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            ASIN: 0674089227

            Book Description

            We've eaten Alar with our apples and PCBs with our fish, drunk arsenic with our water, breathed asbestos in our schools. Someone sounded the alarm, someone else said we were safe, and both had science on their side. Whom are we to trust? How are we to know? Amid this chaos of questions and conflicting information, Aaron Wildavsky arrives with just what the beleaguered citizen needs: a clear, fair, and factual look at how the rival claims of environmentalists and industrialists work, what they mean, and where to start sorting them out.

            Working with his students at a risk analysis center, Wildavsky examined all the evidence behind the charges and countercharges in several controversial cases involving environmental health and public safety. Here he lays out these cases in terms an average citizen can understand, weighs the merits of the claims of various parties, and offers reasoned judgments on the government's response. From Love Canal to Times Beach, from DDT to Agent Orange, acid rain, and global warming, from saccharin to asbestos, nuclear waste, and radon, Wildavsky shows how we can achieve an informed understanding of the contentious environmental issues that confront us daily. The book supports the conclusion Wildavsky reached himself, both as a citizen committed to the welfare of the earth and its inhabitants, and as a social scientist concerned with how public policy is made: though it is bad to be harmed, it is worse to be harmed in the name of health.

            Customer Reviews:

            4 out of 5 stars The sky is falling...or is it?.......2002-03-16

            Aaron Wildavsky attemps (successfully in my opinion) to clarify a couple of things with this book.

            #1 Scientific theory plus emotion does not equal scientific fact.

            #2 Scientific theory plus consensus does not equal scientific fact.

            The "Sky Is Falling" society will not like this book for obvious reasons (their own lack of objectivity being the biggest reason).

            History has been riddled with so called "facts" that were accepted by the majority of scientists at the time, but consensus alone does not equate to proof.

            Wildavsky's book is a good start - but the scientific community has a long road ahead when it comes to dealing with a general public that is largely ignorant of science. Environmentalists have a head start when it comes to winning the battle of public opinion - the scientific community must take books like Wildavsky's and "dumb it down" so that the average person with high school education or less can understand and make informed decisions.

            5 out of 5 stars A Reasoned Discussion of Environmental Issues.......2001-02-06

            Wildavsky's book is a welcome addition to the discussion of environmental politics. He actually dares to challenge the received wisdom of environmental activists. I would have thought that a book that critically examines the claims of environmental dangers and uses scientific knowledge to do that would contribute to our understanding of threats to the environment. Clearly, there are extreme and varied claims for environmental dangers. "But Is It True" helps sort out the exaggerations from the real problems. It also does it in reasoned and unemotional language. I strongly reommend the book for anyone who is concerned about environmental issues rather than the rhetoric of activism.

            5 out of 5 stars A MUST Read!.......2000-06-14

            This book is an essential tool for those who truly wish to understand more about environmental health and safety issues. Worried about global warming? Concerned about pesticide residues in food? Look no further than this reference. The author sets out to objectively evaluate environmental health issues. All sides of a particular issue are explored in depth. Those that do not stand up to scientific scrutiny are exposed. At the end of the book, an explanation of how environmental issues get reported is addressed.

            One of the most important parts of this book is that the author challenges the reader to become a responsible citizen. His premise is that becoming educated on these issues takes some work but is absolutely necessary in order to have the background to make informed decisions about important environmental issues.

            The book is extensively researched and referenced. It provides a greal deal of information on a variety of subjects from toxic scares to global warming. Although the information presented is technical, the authors do a comendable job of organizing the information into a readily understandable format.

            Absolutely a must read for anyone concerned about the environment.

            1 out of 5 stars Don't be fooled by this book.......2000-01-29

            This book is a travesty in many respects. While some of the conclusions were warranted, most (including the overall points) were based on faulty analyses by an academic who had no training in the area upon which he expounds. Indeed, much of the "research" was performed by similarly untrained students. Numerous factual errors were manifest in the book in scientific and regulatory areas. A very biased look at issues that need a more sober approach.
            The Precautionary Principle: A Critical Appraisal
            Average customer rating: 4 out of 5 stars
            • A Must Read Examination of the Precautionary Principle
            • A biased book that bends the truth and neglects reality
            • An intelligent critique of unprincipled precaution
            • An intelligent critique of unprincipled precaution
            • A critical appraisal of the assessment process
            The Precautionary Principle: A Critical Appraisal
            Indur M. Goklany
            Manufacturer: Cato Institute
            ProductGroup: Book
            Binding: Hardcover

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            Similar Items:
            1. The Precautionary Principle in the 20th Century: Late Lessons from Early Warnings The Precautionary Principle in the 20th Century: Late Lessons from Early Warnings
            2. Laws of Fear: Beyond the Precautionary Principle (The Seeley Lectures) Laws of Fear: Beyond the Precautionary Principle (The Seeley Lectures)
            3. Protecting Public Health and the Environment: Implementing The Precautionary Principle Protecting Public Health and the Environment: Implementing The Precautionary Principle
            4. Making Better Environmental Decisions: An Alternative to Risk Assessment Making Better Environmental Decisions: An Alternative to Risk Assessment
            5. Rethinking Risk and the Precautionary Principle Rethinking Risk and the Precautionary Principle

            ASIN: 1930865163

            Book Description

            Goklany argues that selective application of this principle distorts the policy debate.

            Customer Reviews:

            5 out of 5 stars A Must Read Examination of the Precautionary Principle.......2003-09-05

            "Environmental scholar Indur Goklany disagrees with both the UN and the EU visions. In his new book The Precautionary Principle: A Critical Appraisal of Environmental Risk Assessment, he makes a powerful case that many environmentalists have misapplied the plain language of the precautionary principle, a concept he argues was intended originally to be a general notion recommending that policymakers choose rules to produce net reductions in environmental and public-health risks. Instead, environmentalists have turned the precautionary principle into a regulatory nightmare, transforming precaution into something quite different.

            Goklany takes a novel tack, arguing that the attraction the precautionary principle holds for many in the general public is that its plain language indicates only a "look before you leap" sensibility that strikes people as intuitively reasonable. Read properly, the precautionary principle compels regulators to look, but then to let people leap when the evidence indicates that a technology will yield net benefits. In Goklany's interpretation, the precautionary principle insists that both the risks of adopting a new technology and the risks of technological stagnation be examined in regulatory decision making. According to him, genuine precaution is impossible without conducting some sort of risk-risk assessment. By pushing this view, he rejects many European environmentalists' claim that risk analysis is ineffective as a barometer of the environmental costs of economic activities."

            -From "The Independent Review," Fall 2002

            1 out of 5 stars A biased book that bends the truth and neglects reality.......2002-10-06

            While it proports to be an unbiased analysis of precaution, before one reads this book, they need to know the books political perspective. The book is published by the Cato Institute which has a long history of anti-regulatory, anti-environmental positions. This book is no exception. Lake many other Cato Institute publications, the author takes selective pieces of information out of context to provide a less than true reality of the so-called abuse of precaution. To date, we have many very good examples of the health and economic impacts of not taking precaution based on early warnings - lead, asbestos, tobacco. I suggest readers chose an excellent European Union report called Late Lessons from Early Warnings which provides 14 case studies written by experts about how early warnings of damage were not headed. Goklany's case studies - which are noted for being examples of precaution taken too far are far from that. There is general consensus in the scientific community that climate change is happening and possibly resulting in impacts to health and ecosystems. We still do not know the potential range of impacts from genetic engineering - though there is no evidence that restrictions on genetic engineering have caused damage. Goklany presents precaution as a choice between often too bad options - either we have genetic engineering or people starve in the third world, while neglecting that any risk can be addressed through various options, for example integrated pest managment. For an examination of the anti-regulatory position on preventive, precautionary policies, this book is a good choice. For an objective view on environmental risks, it is not

            4 out of 5 stars An intelligent critique of unprincipled precaution.......2002-03-18

            Goklany's "Precautionary Principle" is a thoughtful examination of this political paradigm. In its basic form, the precautionary principle states that harmful actions should be prevented or halted, even if evidence of harm is incomplete. Although this ideal seems reasonable on its surface, it has resulted in a number of undesirable consequences that beg for a better solution. These negative consequences are so common and so expensive as to suggest that the principle itself is lacking or applied wrongly. I like to call it, "unprincipled precaution," rather than precautionary principle, because its mindless application has been so destructive.

            Goklany rightly goes to the core of the problem: devotees of this "principle" typically see only Type 1 Errors and are blind to Type 2 Errors. Type 1 Errors are errors of commission. Type 2 Errors are errors of omission.

            This book covers many examples of regulatory actions taken under the rubric of the precautionary principle to avoid Type 1 Errors which led to Type 2 errors with equal or greater negative consequences.

            Goklany avoids preaching, but it is hard to escape the conclusion that many of the devotees of the precautionary principle are zealots with an ax to grind. Otherwise it is hard to understand their unwillingness to consider the effects Type 2 Errors that accompany they regulatory actions they seek.

            Instead of trashing the precautionary principle, Goklany proposes a more balanced approach to risk, in which both Type 1 and Type 2 Errors are considered and their effects are balanced in any given case. The application of his approach is discussed for several contemporary examples that give the book its substance.

            Any discussion of risk assessment and the precautionary principle should consider the merits of Goklany's arguments.

            4 out of 5 stars An intelligent critique of unprincipled precaution.......2002-03-18

            Goklany's "Precautionary Principle" is a thoughtful examination of this political paradigm. In its basic form, the precautionary principle states that harmful actions should be prevented or halted, even if evidence of harm is incomplete. Although this ideal seems reasonable on its surface, it has resulted in a number of undesirable consequences that beg for a better solution. These negative consequences are so common and so expensive as to suggest that the principle itself is lacking or applied wrongly. I like to call it, "unprincipled precaution," rather than precautionary principle, because its mindless application has been so destructive.

            Goklany rightly goes to the core of the problem: devotees of this "principle" typically see only Type 1 Errors and are blind to Type 2 Errors. Type 1 Errors are errors of commission. Type 2 Errors are errors of omission.

            This book covers many examples of regulatory actions taken under the rubric of the precautionary principle to avoid Type 1 Errors which led to Type 2 errors with equal or greater negative consequences.

            Goklany avoids preaching, but it is hard to escape the conclusion that many of the devotees of the precautionary principle are zealots with an ax to grind. Otherwise it is hard to understand their unwillingness to consider the effects Type 2 Errors that accompany they regulatory actions they seek.

            Instead of trashing the precautionary principle, Goklany proposes a more balanced approach to risk, in which both Type 1 and Type 2 Errors are considered and their effects are balanced in any given case. The application of his approach is discussed for several contemporary examples that give the book its substance.

            Any discussion of risk assessment and the precautionary principle shooed consider the merits of Goklany's arguments.

            5 out of 5 stars A critical appraisal of the assessment process.......2001-12-10

            Environmental risk assessment has long been a part of international agreements and business controls: this provides a critical appraisal of the assessment process, showing that the current uses of the precautionary principle "First, do no harm" is flawed and ignores problems. Goklany creates a new framework for solving such problems and thus provides new food for thought.

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