Book Description
A compelling vision. Bold leadership. Decisive action. Unfortunately, these prerequisites of success are almost always the ingredients of failure, too. In fact, most managers seeking to maximize their chances for glory are often unwittingly setting themselves up for ruin. The sad truth is that most companies have left their futures almost entirely to chance, and don’t even realize it. The reason? Managers feel they must make choices with far-reaching consequences today, but must base those choices on assumptions about a future they cannot predict. It is this collision between commitment and uncertainty that creates THE STRATEGY PARADOX.
This paradox sets up a ubiquitous but little-understood tradeoff. Because managers feel they must base their strategies on assumptions about an unknown future, the more ambitious of them hope their guesses will be right – or that they can somehow adapt to the turbulence that will arise. In fact, only a small number of lucky daredevils prosper, while many more unfortunate, but no less capable managers find themselves at the helms of sinking ships. Realizing this, even if only intuitively, most managers shy away from the bold commitments that success seems to demand, choosing instead timid, unremarkable strategies, sacrificing any chance at greatness for a better chance at mere survival.
Michael E. Raynor, coauthor of the bestselling The Innovator's Solution, explains how leaders can break this tradeoff and achieve results historically reserved for the fortunate few even as they reduce the risks they must accept in the pursuit of success. In the cutthroat world of competitive strategy, this is as close as you can come to getting something for nothing.
Drawing on leading-edge scholarship and extensive original research, Raynor’s revolutionary principle of Requisite Uncertainty yields a clutch of critical, counter-intuitive findings. Among them:
-- The Board should not evaluate the CEO based on the company’s performance, but instead on the firm’s strategic risk profile
-- The CEO should not drive results, but manage uncertainty
-- Business unit leaders should not focus on execution, but on making strategic choices
-- Line managers should not worry about strategic risk, but devote themselves to delivering on commitments
With detailed case studies of success and failure at Sony, Microsoft, Vivendi Universal, Johnson & Johnson, AT&T and other major companies in industries from financial services to energy, Raynor presents a concrete framework for strategic action that allows companies to seize today’s opportunities while simultaneously preparing for tomorrow’s promise.
Customer Reviews:
Requisite uncertainty and human capabilities.......2007-08-22
Zachary Stein ((Harvard Graduate School of Education) & Theo L. Dawson (Developmental Testing Service)
We agree with many of the other reviewers of this book. It combines high quality scholarship and accessibility, making it stand out from most of the popular leadership literature. But we think most of the other reviews have missed a key dimension of Raynor's model, a facet of his vision that sets it apart from the more traditional literature on strategies and organizations. With a nod to the research of Elliot Jaques, Raynor makes it clear that the proposed model of "requisite uncertainty" would have us build organizations that are sensitive both to the demands of the marketplace and the realities of human capabilities. We all know that organizations need to be responsive to socio-economic trends and uncertainties, but only a select few are privy to the notion that organizational hierarchies need to be designed in light of facts about human cognition and cognitive development. In our minds, this latter point is what sets the "Strategy Paradox" apart.
Individuals occupying different roles are faced with different demands. This we all know. But Raynor helps to clarify just who should be doing what, and moreover, what those at the top need to do to handle the unprecedented uncertainties of post-modern socio-economic conditions. As Raynor explains, these high-level demands cash out in terms of dialogically rich inquiry-based procedures for "crystallizing and preserving a diversity of opinions" regarding strategic options. Needless to say, that's a tall order that not just anybody can fill. What's preferable is not always possible. Our only criticism is that Raynor has too little to say about the cognitive capabilities that would make his vision possible. There is a rich literature about adult cognitive development and its measurement that Raynor does an inadequate job of referencing. Jaques and Kegan are the tip of a very complex iceberg. And frankly it's an iceberg that might sink this ship.
From where we sit, the model is incomplete without further consideration of the cognitive demands of "Strategic Flexibility." Any life-span cognitive developmental psychologist will tell you that less than 3% of the adult population in the developed world has the cognitive skills to meet these demands. We don't mean to rain on the parade, but for this model to work we need to ensure that those who engage in the highest levels of strategic planning are equipped with the requisite cognitive and discourse skills. Without them, real-world implementations will be less than stellar.
To sum up, our reading of the "Strategy Paradox" reveals a devil in the details. We think that Raynor's radical suggestions regarding human capabilities and organizational strata are the trend-setting elements of his model. Zeroing in on these suggestions exposes a formidable challenge.
Raynor has put time back into strategy.......2007-08-14
I won't repeat the powerful insights stated by many of the other positive reviewers. Read them yourself. They are special in their own right!
Raynor's latest book is beautifully written. It should all be savoured (slowly if necessary)...
The chapters which I believe Raynor will be truly remembered for are nestled in the middle (chapters 6-8). In these wonderful pages he rightfully restores "time" into strategy-making ("who stole time?", should indeed give rise to several more business books).
Leveraging Elliott Jaques' seminal work on time-spans of discretion, Raynor introduces "strategic flexibility" with compelling clarity and irrefutable logic. As an added bonus, he also illuminates the real role of corporate boards with such lucidity, that reading SOX prescriptions in future will seem sadly impoverished.
I have seen and heard Raynor speak in public. He is a virtuosic whirlwind on stage. Read this book. It is even better than the live performance.
Key Concepts Make it Worth Buying.......2007-08-08
I enjoyed The Strategy Paradox, and have added it to the Pearls of Wisdom page on my site. Powerful concepts in the hands of enlightened leaders, particularly those leading large organizations:
1. Extreme strategies do not come without risk
2. You don't have to predict the future to be successful
3. Divide responsibility for strategy formulation by time horizons
4. Give your organization a chance to adapt and succeed in the most likely future scenarios through options not commitment
In my mind if you get come away from a business book with one or more useful insights, then it was more than worth the time invested. This book is definitely worth the time if you are already (or aspire to be) a corporate leader or strategist.
Five star content!
Read this book before your competitors do.......2007-07-31
I have very high hopes for Raynor's book - it might force business practitioners to think more deeply about formulating real strategy and structuring the organization for competitive advantage. Most treatments of strategy address competitive dynamics (in the line of Porter), likewise positioning, or competency leverage (Collins). Raynor brings forward insights from his research and publishing in innovation (The Innovator's Solution), Harvard doctoral research, and the practical understanding that comes from actually consulting. While his book could anchor a top-notch MBA course, it might lead a good company's board to make much better strategic decisions.
I would not compare The Strategy Paradox with popular business books, such as The Long Tail or even Good to Great, but instead deeply-researched work like Alfred Chandler's. Raynor reveals the perils and promises of strategy formulation, the management of strategy and commitment, and the design and execution of strategic options. Keep in mind that most of what's published in journals and books is very loose, or even just junk research. Strategic management remains largely influenced, in the actual practice of corporate decision making, by Porter's 1980's work, resource allocation, and what I call Powerpoint SWOT. So who should care? Just about every executive and business unit-level manager. And, of course, educators and consultants focusing on business strategy and organizational dynamics.
It is one of the few works on competitive strategy that guides organizational structure as well as business positioning - not directly through guidance on design, but in terms of organizational function necessitated by requisite uncertainty. Raynor never mentions "strategic alignment," a troublesome notion from consulting with no good research support. Rather, he demonstrates how organizational focus on strategic action (as implied by "alignment") results from appropriate structural management, where uncertainty and commitment are appropriately weighted in the hierarchy. In time for Alfred Chandler's handoff to history with his passing in May, Raynor retrieves the original effectiveness of hierarchical management, and maps it functionally to uncertainty. This cleanly obviates the necessity for fuzzy nostrums such as "strategic alignment." (Or perhaps it saves it, for fans of alignment approaches).
Raynor explains complex business scenarios with a brisk storyline. The footnotes are a fascinating secondary read - the points are backed up by his research, Harvard studies, and dozens of well-cited papers. While optional to the main points, the research is actually useful and interesting. Some key concepts are novel in strategy research, such as the application of Elliott Jacques' work on requisite organization to support the principle of Requisite Uncertainty.
I highly recommend this book, and if you are an executive or board advisor, I urge you to read it before your competitors do.
The system encourages mediocrity........2007-07-23
Raynor's book is not the easiest read, but then again, that says more about the reader than it does about the book. The concept is rather revolutionary--and thus, difficult to digest immediately--in that it suggests almost everything we know about strategy and success is wrong. All the books, studies and anecdotes are comparing successful companies and mediocre companies instead of what they claim to do: compare success and failure. If they actually did compare the two, Raynor claims, you'd find a lot of similarities. That all too often, the keys to success are the recipes for failure. And that the people who we hold up as fearless leaders are really just one change in fate away from being the people we mock as losers. He's saying that this is inevitable, after all, how can a study include the business that started and failed and no one ever heard of? Thus, we only see wild success or middle of the road, bet hedgers.
Von Clauswitz talked of this too, saying that as we examine history, before we judge military defeats we must consider what our opinion would be had they succeeded. In other words, if the insurgent resistance in Iraq hadn't been so strong or if the WMD had materialized, would Bush's unilateral, undertrooped strategy be as derided as it is right now? Or if weather hadn't beaten back the Persians at Thermopylae, would we still think them arrogant and brash?
Accordingly, Rayor's book is a very unique look at some of the most illustrious examples of business failure. We see that some of Sony's biggest gaffs, had the market gone the way they'd hoped, would have been their biggest successes. This is true because of the theories two assumptions:
1) A successful strategy requires full commitment
2) Full commitment, in light of unpredictable futures, can mean catastrophic failure
And thus, the more you strategize, the more likely you are to be both massively successful and massively unsuccessful. The only middle ground--and often the most commonly taken--is mediocrity, where the company is neither successful or driven out of business.
Raynor poses a conclusion we often find ourselves also coming to:
"The only way [Company X] could have managed the situation any better is to have predicted the future...and that of course, is impossible. The future never gets here."
He sees strategies as equity or stock. You're purchasing the stock, and if you guessed right, you make money and if you guess wrong, you lose. The real way to succeed then, is to buy options on stocks. Essentially, to set up multiple, concurrent strategy options, from which you can then "agree to buy" the winners. These options then make your chosen strategy mobile in the face on an unpredictable future. This gives you strategic flexibility.
Overall, this was a very interesting book. The review deriding it above are to be expected--if we could all understand this, it wouldn't exactly be a paradox or problem would it? Pick it up and even if you don't understand every word, merely being cognizant of the dilemma would help you.
Average customer rating:
- slow read
- ...covers the basics in an understandable and logical order.
- ...well thought out and easy to read.
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Managed Care: What It Is and How It Works, Second Edition (MANAGED HEALTH CARE HANDBOOK ( KONGSTVEDT))
Peter R. Kongstvedt
Manufacturer: Jones & Bartlett
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Essentials of Managed Health Care (MANAGED HEALTH CARE HANDBOOK ( KONGSTVEDT))
ASIN: 076372498X |
Book Description
Here is the exciting new edition everyone has been waiting for! Look to Managed Care: What It Is and How It Works, Second Edition, to provide you with a solid grounding and clear understanding of managed health care. This completely updated and revised new edition is by the foremost authority in the managed care industry, Dr. Peter Kongstvedt. Managed Care: What It Is and How It Works is enhanced with learning objectives at the beginning of every chapter and an extensive glossary of key managed health care terms. It is written in clear and concise fundamental terms, beginning with an historical overview of managed care, to organizational structures, concepts, and practices of the managed care industry.
Customer Reviews:
slow read.......2006-07-14
From the very first page, I found this book difficult to get through. Not only is it a very dry book, one gets bogged down in complicated sentence structure and undefined terminology. I think this book is probably designed for folks who already know a lot about managed care (see the bios for the two previous reviews). For someone like me, new to pharma, this book just wasn't basic enough to truly grasp the concept of managed care.
...covers the basics in an understandable and logical order........1999-01-15
The book covers the basics in an understandable and logical order...it is well-organized and complete. Chapter 3, The Infrastructure of Managed Care, is very interesting and informative - is very good at describing how managed care organizations do what they do. Chapter 4, Provider Networks, and Chapter 5, Purchasers and Managed Care, are very good chapters with good descriptions of provider networks and purchasing arrangements. (Reviewed by Bernard J. Turnock, MD, MPH, Professor and Director of Community Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of Illinois at Chicago.)
...well thought out and easy to read........1999-01-15
The content of the book overall is well thought out and easy to read. Chapter 1, The Evolution of Managed Care, is an excellent chapter. The Medicaid and Medicare sections of Chapter 5 are excellent. Chapter, 7, Quality of Care, is an excellent chapter--one of the best on quality I've read. (reviewed by Carmella M. Sebastian, MD, Senior Medical Director, First Priority Health, The Blue Cross of Northeastern Pennsylvania HMO)
Book Description
Risk Intelligence gives executives and business managers a simple mental model and simple tools to manage these risks. According to the author's model, risks fall into two categories: knowable and therefore learnable, and unknowable and therefore difficult to prepare for.
The book not only shows readers how to analyse their knowable risks but helps them to appreciate the quality and utility of their own analysis. As it turns out, some people have a higher risk IQ than others and therefore analyse and manage risks more effectively. This book helps people of all risk aptitudes to assess and improve their risk IQs.
Customer Reviews:
Risk Intelligence is enthusiastically recommended for business leaders .......2006-11-05
Written by David Apgar, a managing director of the Corporate Executive Board best-practices research organization which serves senior executives at over 2,500 institutions worldwide, Risk Intelligence: Learning To Manage What We Don't Know openly challenges the common presumption that risk management and related business judgments is a matter solely for technical specialists. Risk Intelligence teaches the reader how to distinguish learnable risks from random risks in business decisions, how to score one's own risk intelligence, how to conduct a solid risk strategy audit, how to build networks that can adapt dynamically to risk, and much more. Written in plain terms with clear examples, Risk Intelligence is enthusiastically recommended for business leaders seeking to sharpen their flexibility and adaptability when confronting unknown threats.
Highly recommended.......2006-09-19
Apgar's focus on learnable risks offers some very useful frameworks for applying risk management concepts to a real-word competitive business environment.
Excellent new perspective on risk.......2006-09-08
This is a fantastic book with powerful insight about the failing of portfolio theory when it comes to understanding and managing business risks. Apgar offers wonderful examples to illustrate how business risks are actually learnable and he creates a framework for preparing yourself to be good at learning about and mitigating risk.
This would be a very good book for seminars on risk management at the college level or in exec education programs at corporations.
Book Description
Mold, lead, radon, asbestos, food additives, power lines, and more: what the risks are, and how to safeguard against them.
Arsenic. Mercury. Pesticides. Dioxin. Toxic gases. Your typical hazardous waste dump, right? Wrong. These materials can be found in the home. Every day, people work, live, and play amid potentially harmful toxics-things they might not even know are there. They are exposed to these toxic substances in their homes, neighborhoods, schools, workplaces, foods, and consumer products.
Now, two toxics experts with decades of experience in public health have created a book that separates the risks from the myths of everyday toxics. Comprehensive and easy-to-use, this guide provides scenarios and real-life examples-including important warning signs-that show how to identify problems and what to do about them. With Q&A segments, charts to help assess risk, and a special homebuyer's guide, What's Toxic, What's Not is a book no home should be without.
Customer Reviews:
Good to Know.......2007-02-18
Great Book. Has lots of helpful information. An excellent reference for anyone concerned about their living environment.
An indispensable health guide and reference for your home and workplace.......2007-01-31
This is a must-have book.
I've never written an on-line book review but I feel so strongly about this book's message that I'm taking the time to write this one in the hopes that you'll act on it.
As a public health professional specializing in environmental health, I am always getting questions from friends, family, and the public about environmental threats to their health.
Recent examples: My water smells funny when I take showers, is this a problem for my child or me? Should I worry about living near the highway - my windowsills have black soot on them. My neighbor's wood stove smells up our house at night and I fear my father's emphysema is worsening. My employer just moved me into a new office building that stinks of chemicals and now at night my chest hurts - it's never hurt before. I love to eat fish but the media is telling me to stop - should I?
I must admit I don't have all the answers - not even close. The diversity of threats, the complexity of each threat, and the proliferation of new scientific research makes it impossible for one person to have all the most informed answers.
But Ginsberg and Toal's new book comes closer to covering all the bases--and covering them exceptionally well--than anything I've ever read.
These experts have dedicated their careers to public health. They've worked on the front lines for decades. Their vast real-world experience and far-reaching understanding of the science--coupled with a knack for translating complexity into easily digestible and practical answers--is a winning combination.
Section 5 (Tying it All Together) alone is worth the full cost of the book (which is considerably less than how much I typically spend each day commuting). Actually, the section is worth a lot more than the book cost. It's hard to believe this much useful and important knowledge comes so cheaply.
I just bought 10 copies of this book. I'm sending these new copies to some of my friends and relatives raising families, to others with health problems, and to my parents and siblings. Of course I know many more people who likely would benefit from the book. I'll send them this review and urge them to make the investment. Everyone I know will be covered.
I have no doubt they'll find this book one of the most useful purchases they've made in awhile.
The added bonus is I'll no longer need to spend hours trying to find answers to all of their questions. Ginsberg and Toal's book now gets the job done for me.
A Must Have Guide Book .......2007-01-14
By reading Mr. Ginsbergs book you will learn things uou never knew and confirm things you thought you knew. It is a complete guide that every home should have. This is a polluted and toxic world we live in. It is comforting to have an idea of what toxins are and how they can and should be dealt with.
Excellent, practical guide to environmental risks.......2006-12-15
I came across this book while browsing in the health section. Once I got past the somewhat alarming cover, I found a really useful guide to sorting out the risks from chemicals in our environment. The authors have a commonsense approach, explain the science in everyday language that I can follow, and helped me to understand which toxic substances to worry about and which are ok. I thought it would scare me, but I actually found this book to be empowering, because each chapter ends with a checklist of things I can do to keep myself and my family safe. I recommend it: along with diet, exercise, and stress reduction guides, it will help you stay healthy, by enabling you to change your lifestyle for the better.
Toxic realities and myths.......2006-12-11
Rachel Carson's seminal 1950s expose, "Silent Spring" began educating us about the dangerous chemicals industry spewed onto the land and sea. After decades of media coverage of toxic events (Love Canal, Three Mile Island,Taco Bell ecoli breakout) we're either completely paranoid about what we eat and breath or completely blaise because we don't know who or what to believe anymore.
Along comes Dr. Gary Ginsberg and his sidekick Brian Toal, the toxic-busters from Connecticut's department of health to give us some prospective. True, there are a lot of harmful pesticides and toxins especially lead, carbon monoxide and pressure treated wood the authors write, but there are many other air and waterborn invaders that are not as problematic. The authors adroitly dispel these myths and perhaps the most important page in the book comes early, page 10, where they list the Top 10 Toxic Risks and the Top Ten Toxic Myths.
Written in laymen's terms without placing blame, the authors stay focused on their mission---helping consumers sort throught our toxic wasteland. Using real life episodes to illustrate their points, they give us specific ways to protect ourselves and remediate pollution in our homes and neighborhoods.
Children are the most vulnerable to many of the biggest problems such as ozone air pollution and parents would be wise to read this book. Prospective homebuyers will also protect themselves and save some heartache and equity if they take the authors advise on mold, radon, powerlines and hazardous waste sites.
Book Description
Taking us behind the scenes with today’s foremost researchers and pioneers, bestselling author Joel Garreau shows that we are at a turning point in history. At this moment we are engineering the next stage of human evolution. Through advances in genetic, robotic, information, and nanotechnologies, we are altering our minds, our memories, our metabolisms, our personalities, our progeny–and perhaps our very souls. Radical Evolution reveals that the powers of our comic-book superheroes already exist, or are in development in hospitals, labs, and research facilities around the country–from the revved-up reflexes and speed of Spider-Man and Superman, to the enhanced mental acuity and memory capabilities of an advanced species. Over the next fifteen years, Garreau makes clear in this New York Times Book Club premiere selection, these enhancements will become part of our everyday lives. Where will they lead us? To heaven–where technology’s promise to make us smarter, vanquish illness, and extend our lives is the answer to our prayers? Or, as some argue, to hell–where unrestrained technology brings about the ultimate destruction of our species?
Customer Reviews:
A Book for the SciFi Inspired to the Technologically Challenged.......2007-05-08
Reading Radical Evolution is like reading a "How to" column - you are always surprised what can really be done. The book opens with a number of mind boggling bits of research talking about things from telekinesis to a device that gives soldiers x-ray vision; the funny thing is that these things are really occurring in laboratories as we speak. The purpose of the book is to provide an understandable, digested version of the work that is happening in Futuring land. Futuring, for those who are not in the know, is simply the study of trends and projections in an effort to forecast the future. Much like a meteorologist predicts the weather, futurists attempt to predict the social, political, technological, and economic climate 50 to 100 to a 1,000 years in advance. The book tries to stay neutral, explaining the possible horrors and terrors of advancing technology, but it clear from the first page to the back cover that its author, Joel Garreau, is a big supporter of advancements in technologies. Beyond the first couple examples, he goes further to describing how technologies can affect every bit of our being. Surveying the thoughts and opinions of numerous, credible futurists, he talks about how little robots can allow us to live in to our 200 hundreds and how we may have space colonies on the moon before we know it. The title, Radical Evolution, comes from the idea that through these advancements in technology, we, as humans, are creating a radical chain of evolution that is pushing past any boundaries that nature had set for us. It is even argued that we are actually transcending our humanity through these changes.
In the middle of the book he presents a point/counter-point discussion of the future technology, appropriately labeled "Heaven" and "Hell"; the greatest possible outcomes pinned against the most devastating consequences force the reader to ponder the benefits of new technology. As a compromise, Garreau offers a scenario in which humans simply prevail, this is neither a scenario of humanities grandeur or it's defeat, but rather a median between both extremes. Finally, Garreau admits the limited view that even the greatest researchers have in terms of looking at the future. People can make predictions to their hearts content, but in the end chance happenings and unplanned events can transform the course of any one prediction. All that any futurist can do is take the best information available and make a thorough forecast off with that data, supporting the argument until the next trend arrives.
Radical Evolution.......2007-04-15
Radical Evolution was written by Joel Garreu and is subtitled The Promise and Peril of Enhancing Our Minds, Our Bodies--and what it means to be Human. The book leaves many ideas in a readers head about what is going to come of humanity, and what is in store for our future. Many researchers and scientists are interviewed throughout the book to give realistic ideas about possibilities dealing with technological, genetic, and philosophical changes that can possibly occur in the future. Garreau notes that the first difficulty in the world today is "making sense of the world unfolding before us, in which we face the biggest challenge in tens of thousands of years in what it means to be human". The book aims at helping to shape our world, our lives, our children, and our relationships.
Many different advancements in the world are being worked on as we speak such as mood-enhancing drugs, metabolism-enhancing drugs, drugs that will enable us to live without sleeping nearly as much as we do, and increasing mental capacity with genetic machines. Garreau's book dives into the ideas and endless possibilities behind GRIN technologies. GRIN technologies include genetics, robotics, information technology, and nanotechnology. Throughout the book, the author also explores the idea of how the world is going to end up. He presents many different scenarios that can formulate the world that will surround our children as they grow up. These possibilities include the heaven scenario, the hell scenario, and the prevail scenario. It is obvious throughout the book that the author leads towards the prevail scenario in which we take the "two steps forward, and one step back" philosophy and we end up successfully slowly continuing our future.
The book was extremely well written and a difficult book to put down after you begin reading it. It is shocking to find out that in our future, our bodies can be changed so much that dieting and exercise could become a thing of the past. Garreau did a wonderful job researching and finding information and advancements in technology that can be important throughout the future of our lives. The book is a prime example of a post-human future in which society uses advancements in technology to allow humans to shape their lives, bodies, minds, and well being. This book introduces the idea that our technologies are beginning to merge with our minds, our memories, our metabolisms, our personalities, our progeny, and even beginning to merge with our souls.
O the possibilities .......2007-04-15
Joel Garreau's Radical Evolution is a trip through our wildest fantasies, where anything is possible. This in-depth analysis of what may be in store for our earth and the human species can, at times, seem intriguing, frightening, mind-boggling or even overwhelming, but never boring. Garreau's overall aim is to inform a general audience of the vast changes that are currently reshaping our selves, our children and our relationships. To do this he focuses on the advancements of what he calls the "GRIN" technologies, or genetics, robotics, information, and nano-tech. He presents his work and scenario predictions through scientific research and entertaining depictions of scientists and pioneers in various fields, all of whom hold widely different views
Following a brief background of defining scenarios and what they entail, Garreau begins his analysis of future scenarios by introducing the idea of the "The Curve" or the rate of exponential change in technology and the Singularity scenario. He demonstrates "the curve" through the progression of "GRIN" technologies, while also setting the scene for the remainder of the book, which focuses on the various potential outcomes of these advancements.
Garreau divides the majority of the book into four scenarios, "Heaven," "Hell," "Prevail," and "Transcend." Although he defines them separately, he believes that the future is usually a combination of all the stories you can construct to anticipate it. While reading the book, this is a good outlook to have because the scenarios presented are radical. In the "Heaven" scenario, supported predominantly by Ray Kurzweil, positive technological advancements have led to a Utopian society. In this prediction the human race has achieved perfection on all realms. In the "hell scenario," a complete contradiction of the "heaven" one, everything goes awry. In this pessimistic forecast, primarily described by Bill Joy, the human species not only fails to thrive, but has to fight for survival against the technology it created. "Prevail," presented by Janor Lanier is a scenario in which the human race "muddles through." In this forecast we do not excel, but we do survive. Lanier believes that as we advance we will create and discover new problems but, like always, we will get through them. It is important to know that Garreau describes the first three as not being on a line, but forming a triangle where the two base points are the "heaven" and "hell" scenarios. This entails that Prevail, although a more moderate scenario is not a mid-point between the other two.
The last major scenario presented in the book is "transcend," which forecasts the world transforming beyond our wildest dreams. The information here is hardly feasible and at times hard to grasp. Overall the book is fascinating and paradigm shifting, leading the reader to evaluate the presented scenarios and challenge preconceived notions about what the future entails.
How can we maintain in the midst of what's ahead?.......2007-04-11
Radical Evolution, by Joel Garreau is one of the most insightful, down to earth and wonderful reads about the field of futures thinking, futures studies and many other things future-related. Garreau depicts for the reader in his work how we have already begun the development of technologies that will lead us into the following decades and how the development of these new technologies, and the way in which humanity implements them, will fundamentally alter and forever change what it means to be human and to exist in this world. Garreau's theories and brilliant depictions of many possible future scenarios are easily understood; he is extremely careful and precise in his vivid manner of relating seemingly complex moral, ethical and physical future situations to the reader. The effectiveness of his work shines through in his "everyman" approach to discussing the material within the book's pages. Although he is a professional and scholar in the field of futures studies and futures thinking, Garreau never seems to put himself above the reader. Radical Evolution is not a lecture, more, this book is a sort of conversation between the reader and Garreau. If you compare this book to others that include projections of the future, at least half of Garreau's work/chapters stand out far from the rest. Instead of merely making worked-over and tired predictions about the future of humanity and our developing technologies, Garreau details in three of the eight chapters in Radical Evolution, three separate and distinct scenarios for the future of mankind. Chapter 4, heartwarmingly titled Heaven, exhibits the ultimate in desired futures: a place where work is done by the technologies we've developed and humans enjoy lives of leisure. The Heaven scenario depicts a place where, if we have not cured all, or even most, of the diseases that plague the human body, we are extremely close. In Chapter 5 the reader comprehends (rather fearfully at times) Garreau's Hell scenario, in which the title explains it all. Quickly, Garreau revives the reader with a chapter that outlines his Prevail prediction/scenario in which the future has a more human (perhaps faulty) approach, meaning, not all is well at first, things go wrong, etc. however mankind will carry on. Radical Evolution is a fair and balanced portrayal of both good and bad, order and chaos, light and dark and moral and evil. Radical Evolution paints an in-depth, touching and rich portrait about where mankind is heading, outlining how we are propelling ourselves there slowly but surely and most importantly, helping to define what it all means for the individual.
Exponential curve?.......2007-01-29
Radical Evolution discusses how the rate of technological innovation has consistently accelerated over time, and the implications for what the world might look like in ten, twenty, fifty years because of this.
Garreau focuses on 3 main scenarios for how it all might turn out, and he dubs these Heaven, Hell, and Prevail, which you can think of as optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic, respectively.
Interspersed in this presentation are many interesting tidbits and information about what is currently being worked on by agencies such as DARPA. My overall impression was that the book was of the variety of Blink and Faster, but with more meat.
The book content is actually only 273 pages long, due to a large index and collection of suggested readings, both very comprehensive.
Book Description
"What's happening to me? Is my baby going to be okay?"
Maybe you're reading this guide because you've been told you're at high risk for having a premature baby. Or perhaps you're reading it after your baby's unexpectedly early birth, and you're wondering what the future holds for this incredibly tiny person. You'll find all the answers you need in this comprehensive guide for parents, the first book to fully discuss both coping with high-risk pregnancy and caring for your premature baby. Topics include:
Managing the High-Risk Pregnancy: Stalling preterm labor, coping with bed rest, medications to help the baby
The First Twenty-four Hours after Delivery: What to expect right after the baby's born, coping with insurance, and more
Your Preemie's Growth and Maturation: What to expect in terms of physical appearance and development for 24-, 28-, and 32-week preemies
The NICU: What the neonatal intensive care unit looks like, equipment and staff, and how to be a good NICU parent
Bringing Your Preemie Home: Getting your home ready, managing anxiety, feeding your preemie, keeping Dad involved
Later-Life Development: Health, growth, and cognitive and psychological development as your baby matures
Prematurity and the Special Needs Child: How to help your child lead a full life
Featuring the most up-to-date medical information available and filled with the voices of dozens of parents who've been in your shoes, this reassuring guide will help you make the best choices for yourself and your baby.
Customer Reviews:
What I wish I knew before I got pregnant........2004-06-26
My son was born prematurely June 10, 2004. My 30 week ultrasound came back showing that my ambionic fluid was low and my baby only weighed 2 lbs. 7 ounces. The next day I was sent by my OB/GYN to meet with a perinatologist. Within 15 minutes of meeting the specialist, I was told my baby would be born witihin 24 to 48 hours and was admitted to the hospital 30 minutes later. My son was born via emergency csection 27 hours later. I was 31 weeks into my pregancy. He will spend 9 weeks in neonatal ICU before he can come home. This so far, has been the hardest and most heartbreaking part of my entire pregnancy.
I am 30 years old and was diagnosed with chronic high blood pressure two years ago. This book is a step by step account of what happened to me. I developed pregnancy induced hypertension which turned into preeclampsia. None of my doctors (family practicioner or OB/GYN) told me how dangerous and high risk my pregnancy would be. I wish I knew then what this book has taught me now, it has been a real eyeopener and lifesaver.
essential for (expecting) preemie-parents.......2001-11-21
Upon hearing you're pregnant, most people will only have images of perfect babies. When hearing something is going wrong with your pregnancy, most people have no idea what to expect.
When I heared I was going to have my baby within half an hour, at 26 weeks of pregnancy... I had no idea what was laying ahead of me.
This book prepares you on what to expect when you have a high-risk pregnancy and takes you trough the 24 hours after delivery, your preemies growth and maturation, the neonatal unit, bringing your baby home and later-life development. There is also a part on babies with special needs and a part about when things go wrong.
From the many lonely hours I could not be with my baby, I spent many reading this book. The stories of other parents helped me survivng the nicu and the many charts and statistics helped me to get an image on what to expect.
Thank you very much for this book.
The book for a high risk pregnancy and the NICU.......2001-07-18
A very helpful book for reading during your high-risk pregnancy and when your baby is in the NICU. I did think that the anecdotes about women's experiences with terbutaline and magnesium sulfate were unnecessarily alarming. This book complemented Linden's Essential Guide for Parnets of Premature Babies nicely.
Helpful beyond words.......2001-04-30
This is THE book I wished I'd known about in advance when we developed problems later in my pregnancy. I actually think anyone expecting a baby where there is a possibility of it becoming a high-risk pregnancy (and face it, that could be any of us, right?) should read this book so that you can be prepared to be the best possible advocate for yourself and your child in the NICU and during the transition out. It will also help you understand the complexities of what goes on in the NICU so you can work well with the staff caring for your infant.
Essential reading.......2000-11-21
This book has been a God-send. Its clear, comprehensive text, helpful illustrations, and authoritative advice (the lead author is a top Houston neonatologist) is just what my husband and I needed when we found out our baby was going to be born prematurely.
We especially liked all of the stories and testimony from parents, people who have experienced the fear and uncertainty of high-risk pregnancy. Their stories are incredibly reassuring. We needed to know we weren't alone.
This book is a must-have for any parent whose pregnancy is not going as planned.
Book Description
The annual survey of American Corporations conducted by Pinkerton Consulting & Investigations Inc. revealed the top 20 security threats to businesses. Those threats are compiled into this comprehensive loss prevention manual. You will learn the ways people can destroy your profits and what you can do to eliminate the threats. It details shoplifting, credit card fraud, identity theft, employee theft, vendor theft, workplace violence, and many topics you won't find in any other loss prevention book. Most importantly, it gives you strategies to reduce or stop these losses. Learn how to: guard against robbery, theft and burglary in your business: fight fraud; protect your information from espionage, hacking, and disasters; increase safety procedures to decrease accidents; stop violence and harassment; conduct background checks including criminal, credit, driving, and drug tests; avoid litigation.
Customer Reviews:
An absolute "must-read" for any business owner .......2004-10-30
The collaboration of business security experts Thomas N. Monson and Sarah Kaip, Loss Prevention Threats & Strategies: How People Steal From Your Business And What You Can Do To Stop It is a detailed analysis of the top 20 security threats to American corporations, and means by which business owners and executives can prevent shoplifting, credit card fraud, identity theft, employee and vendor theft, embezzlement, workplace violence, and much more. A solid, practical guide emphasizing the crucial importance of instituting policies to protect from both external and internal theft, as well as lawsuits that can result from everything from accidents to sexual harrassment, workplace violence, employee discrimination, neglegent hiring, and much more. An absolute "must-read" for any business owner in today's dangerous, litigatious, and all too greedy world.
Book Description
From tragic accidents to public relations fiascos, we live in an increasingly crisis-ridden society. In fact, half of the major industrial accidents of the past century occurred in the last 20 years. Incidents such as Bhopal and the Exxon Valdez have become embedded in our consciousness, cultural icons of the worst sort. Other crises, less devastating but with serious impact on their businesses, occur almost daily. Why is this--and what can be done to reverse this disturbing trend?
According to Ian Mitroff, one of the world's leading experts on crisis management, the rise in the crisis rate is due to an ingrained "it-can't happen-to-us" mentality--which, in turn, leads to a total lack of preparedness for crises. His solution? Find out in Managing Crises Before They Happen. This fascinating book provides readers with a powerful framework that will help them:
* Recognize the early warning signals that almost always precede a crisis
* Focus on the big picture, not just the details
* Avoid becoming either the victim or the villain in a crisis situation
* Understand the importance of personal character, corporate culture, and thinking outside the box to effective crisis management
* Learn from one crisis things that can prevent or ameliorate the next.
Customer Reviews:
A framework for crisis management.......2006-02-18
Understanding that completely eliminating crises is impossible, the authors of this book lay out a model any company can use to limit both duration and the magnitude of the crisis. This model ensures the major objectives of a company's business are not derailed during a crisis or series of crises.
A best-practice model is offered that identifies five factors that companies must manage before, during, and after a crisis: 1) the type and risk categories of crises, 2) mechanisms, 3) systems, 4) stakeholders and 5) scenarios. These five components form a crisis-management framework, that when integrated with other important organizational programs, such as planning, issues management, or quality assurance, will help companies weather severe storms.
The authors discuss the importance of truth-telling. In the light of the recent events with Enron and Andersen, the authors' advice to companies to not ask if the truth will be revealed, but rather when the truth will become public and under what circumstances, seems both timely and poignant.
Average customer rating:
- Understanding the Myths and Realities of 401-K Plans
- I'll struggle to review, like the writers struggled to conclude
- If You Participate in a 401(k), You'd Better Read This
- So Many "A-ha" Moments
- A good perspective on the risks inherent in 401k plans
|
The Great 401 (K) Hoax: Why Your Family's Financial Security is at Risk, and What You Can Do about It
William Wolman , and
Anne Colamosca
Manufacturer: Basic Books
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback
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ASIN: 0738208523
Release Date: 2003-04-01 |
Book Description
The American public was hoodwinked: 401(k)s were established to satisfy corporations, not the interests of working Americans. Portrayed as a perpetual wealth machine, the 401(k) was meant to satisfy the needs of every employee. Yet, it was an impossible promise to fulfill: It was the great 401(k) hoax. According to William Wolman and Anne Colamosca, this was the latest act in the gradual erosion of the nation's retirement system. Drawing from reams of historical and contemporary data as well as economic, social, and political trends, they reveal the system's troubled 100year history. Beyond exposing the hoax, the authors urge everyone to take charge of their investment portfolio and recommend strategies for beating Wall Street at its own game. Timely and incisive, The Great 401(k) Hoax is guaranteed to inspire debate and action-from the water cooler to the boardroom to the voting booth.
Customer Reviews:
Understanding the Myths and Realities of 401-K Plans.......2006-08-25
I read and was enlightened by the hardcover edition of Wolman and Colamosca's book when it was first published and am looking forward to reading the updates in the recently released paperback edition. Companies encouraged baby boomers to join the 401-K bandwagon. Now, as we begin to enter retirement years, our large demographic may provide a magnified study of the impact of such plans. Perhaps this will benefit younger members of the workforce, especially if the Bush Administration re-visits its efforts to foster worker-managed-retirement-investment programs.
I'll struggle to review, like the writers struggled to conclude.......2006-03-09
The Great 401(k) Hoax is real!!!!
Or at least that's what the writers of this book, surpisingly former Business Week contributers, will have you believe. ("Surprisingly" because of the lack of free-markets bent.)
The conclusion is that our entire futures are based around a flawed and imperfect system of investing that has led us all astray and has jeopardized our future. This is ten to fifteen pages of The Great 401(k) Hoax. The rest of the book provides historical comparisons to the post bubble/9-11 period that "prove" we are in for stagnant returns in the stock market from now (the now being mid 2002 when the book was written) to...well, who knows when. Quite honestly, the historical connection is incredibly signficant as history may not be indicitive of future returns (as all mutual funds are required to tell you), but history can be darn close. This part of the book is very interesting and important. Also included is a analytical perspective on the destruction of the pension plan which is fine and good, but intuitive.
What lacks is the clear cut conclusion of "what do we do?" Part of the title of this book is "What You Can Do About It." After reading the entire book, I'm still not entirely clear on what I can do about it. The writers offer investment suggestions, but in the end still seem a little inconclusive on whether they are viable options for a safe retirement. In the afterward, written a year or so after the original release, many of the writers' original investment suggestions are (obviously) rescinded, such as bonds which had 3 years of strong growth following the continuing decline of stocks. Ultimately, one investment option is highly recommended, both in the book and the afterward. I won't ruin the surprise for readers, but their TIPs are anti-climactic.
If You Participate in a 401(k), You'd Better Read This.......2006-02-23
If a person wants to invest in the stock market or in other forms of investments (bonds, govt. securities), and the primary purpose behind these investments is for retirement, this is a book that one should read. As with so many things that the government does, often in cahoots with businesses, this book shows how the 401(k), a supposed benefit to employees, is anything but. The `average' employee is getting ripped off in his/her 401(k) plan. The primary benefits of 401(k)'s are to the businesses, themselves, and to the top 10% of households based on wealth. Simply put, the rich get richer at the expense of the middle and lower class. If you have a 401(k) or are thinking of participating in one, read this book first and then decide if or how you want to participate. Rating: 4.0.
So Many "A-ha" Moments.......2006-01-04
I'd been feeling suspicious and uncomfortable for years with regards to Stock Market investing, Mutual funds and 401K's and pension plans in particular. I never really knew why aside from this feeling that "The Street" was always trying to pull a fast one on us little guys. I applaud and thank the authors for this book and the effort to educate the masses. The patience and wisdom with which they explain the "fallacy of composition" as the basic principal behind the danger of investing in the stock market and especially a 401K for one's retirement is the best and most important element of the book. I'm feeling as if I've just been pulled from a burning building.
This book also reveals the many advantages corporations have over wage earners and the individual investors. Reading this book will arm the average American with the knowledge needed to prevent costly investment mistakes - like complacency and too much trust in our corporate employers and wall street gurus.
A good perspective on the risks inherent in 401k plans.......2005-07-14
The authors set out to prove that 401k plans are inherently risky and in many cases inadequate to meet the retirement needs of people. They make their case by using historical analysis and they manage to do it well. They draw a parallel comparision between the politics, culture and economics of the 1920s and the 1990s. Just as the 1920s led to the Great Crash and the Depression, the new millenium looks ready for similar economic hardships. This can have a devastating effect on the retirement plans for most Americans.
Before 401(k) plans came into the picture, "defined pension plans" had become popular ( though not as popular as 401k was eventually to become). Those were the Golden years of the American economy (1945-1973). It represented a certain commitment by American companies to their workers. Most companies were doing well in those years and could guarantee the monthly pension checks to retirees.
As America suffered slow-growth years from 1973 to the mid 90s, the solution that emerged for improving corporate balance sheets was simple: Design a pension system that depended not on defined benefits for employees but on defined contributions made mainly by employees. As corporations were having more trouble making money, the 401(k) became the new model for pensions.
Various other factors contributed to Americans shifting more and more of their assets into stocks/Mutual funds/401k plans over the years:
1. First is the Wall Street propaganda resulting from the massive drive to capture the public's resources. Andrew Smithers, the brilliant British financial analyst, once told the authors that he could make a lot of money by being a bull and being wrong than by being a bear and being right.
2. Delusive academic research, demonstrating that stock investments, patiently made over the years, were a safe and superior source of investment. Professor Jeremy Siegel's book "Stocks for the Long Run" has been one of the most repected sources of delusion. To Siegel, the failure to grow rich is an individual's failure to save enough or to be patient, not of the way in which society as a totality works.
3. The economic boom years from 1995-1999 provided much incentive and validated the Wall Street propaganda and the delusive academic research.
The authors discuss the various evils in the stock market, the current American economy and the 401k plan. They propose various reforms such as banning of company stock contributions, allowing employees to shift their funds at any time they want to, keeping transaction fees low and discouraging conflicts of interest between employees and their corporate employees.
Until new legislation arrives to fix our 401(k) plans, we are stuck with what exists. Investing in Inflation-indexed government bonds, though not frequently made available in 401(k) plans, come across as the best way to plan for retirement in the current situation.
This book is worth a read just to get a historical perspective of the US economy and of the retirements plans that existed through the times.
Book Description
An indispensable and timely guide, Risk is the authority for assessing threats to your health and safety. We continually face new risks in our world. This essential family reference will help you understand worrisome risks so you can decide how to stay safe and how to keeps risks in perspective. Expert authors David Ropeik and George Gray include information on: - 50 top hazards - your likelihood of exposure - the consequences - ways to reduce your risk They cover topics such as: - cancer - biological weapons - indoor air pollution - pesticides - radiation
Customer Reviews:
The antidote to media scares.......2007-05-27
Though its prose style is deliberately dry, this wonderful reference work is the perfect antidote to the "scare of the week" that the media continually inflict upon us. Has short sections on each of 48 risks (e.g. indoor air pollution; pesticides; firearms; X-rays; caffeine; breast implants) containing data and the relevant scientific knowledge, summarized by two scales of "likelihood of being affected" and "seriousness of being affected". Even those who consider themeselves knowledgeable about risk will learn something; I recommend it for my undergraduate seminar course at Berkeley.
great for browsing.......2006-10-07
I thought this was a really fun and interesting book to read, and it is great for learning to think about things from a public health perspective. It also introduces a wide variety of scientific terms and concepts in an interesting and easy to read way. While I believe that the general conclusions on specific risks are valid in a general sense, I also feel as though the heavy reliance on population data makes this less of a practical guide on the individual level. For example, looking at the risk of developing health problems due to air pollution for the U.S. population in general is interesting and informative but may not accurately reflect my individual risk in New Jersey. Because of the complexities involved in risk assessment, I thought the risk meter presentations (although very interesting, and truly a browser's delight) were too general and simplistic. In the author's defense, the narratives often give more practical detail, identify modifiable risk factors and acknowledge some limitations of the data and assessments. While at times I took issue with the validity of generalizing the data and the practicality of some conclusions at the individual level, I recommend this book highly for those interested in how public health risk is evaluated.
Easy to read and comprehend .......2006-04-01
This publication brings more complex concepts of risk management to a common level of understanding for many college students. It helps create a foundation for proper risk communication and arms students with the knowledge to address a large variety of issues affecting our lives today.
MAJOR DISAPPOINTMENT.......2005-08-24
I recognize the authors to be significant scholars capable of important work, but this book is downright deceitful in that the title and subtitle suggest that it is a scholarly effort when in fact it is a pop culture "digest" or collection of superficial lists. There is very little discussion worthy of the researchers and you should save your money for a real text if they do one. You can find ALL the information quite easily on the internet.
An Interesting Read, But Has Some Shortcomings.......2005-06-28
I've been interested in the topic of perceived versus real risks for quite some time. When I bought this book I was hoping for a source for comparisons of data that would be useful to someone with such interests. While this book addresses many common risk situations with practical advice regarding them it lacks much really hard data or statistical analysis. No specific references are provided (footnotes, end notes, sources) for teh materials in the book. However, sources for further investigation do appear regularly at the end of each chapter.
Also, despite publication in 2002, after the "9/11" attack and all of its attendant fall-out it fails to address even at a superficial level the preceived risks of terrorism in the US. In the index the word terrorism is noted "see biological weapons (bioweapons); perceived risk." In my opinion, this lack of coverage is glaring. Granted the book was doubtless in the works before 9/11; still, had I been the author or publisher, I'd have delayed publication until a relevant section could have been added.
This is a handy book, a relatively easy read, and probably a decent introduction to the basic concepts of relative risk assessment. As long as one understands this is a basic layperson's text and not a serious look at risk assessment, this may be a good book for you.
Books:
- The Tale of Pale Male: A True Story
- The Tale of Pale Male: A True Story
- The Taming Of Chance (Ideas in Context)
- The Wild Parrots of Telegraph Hill: A Love Story . . .with Wings
- The Wild Parrots of Telegraph Hill: A Love Story . . .with Wings
- The Wisdom of James Allen : Including As a Man Thinketh, The Path to Prosperity, The Mastery of Destiny, The Way of Peace, and Entering the Kingdom (Radiant Life)
- Theoretical Neuroscience: Computational and Mathematical Modeling of Neural Systems
- What Makes Flamingos Pink?: A Colorful Collection of Q & A's for the Unquenchably Curious
- Why Birds Sing: A Journey Through the Mystery of Bird Song
- Why We Believe What We Believe: Uncovering Our Biological Need for Meaning, Spirituality, and Truth
Books Index
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