Freakonomics [Revised and Expanded]: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything

Freakonomics [Revised and Expanded]: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything
Average customer rating:

Bold interpretation and Out of the Box Perspective

The Antithesis of Your Memories of Econ 101

Weak correlation does not equal causation

Very compelling reading

Fascinating!

Freakonomics [Revised and Expanded]: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything
Steven D. Levitt
Manufacturer: William Morrow
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

Econometrics | Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books
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ASIN: 0061234001
Release Date: 2006-10-17

Amazon.com

Economics is not widely considered to be one of the sexier sciences. The annual Nobel Prize winner in that field never receives as much publicity as his or her compatriots in peace, literature, or physics. But if such slights are based on the notion that economics is dull, or that economists are concerned only with finance itself, Steven D. Levitt will change some minds. In Freakonomics (written with Stephen J. Dubner), Levitt argues that many apparent mysteries of everyday life don't need to be so mysterious: they could be illuminated and made even more fascinating by asking the right questions and drawing connections. For example, Levitt traces the drop in violent crime rates to a drop in violent criminals and, digging further, to the Roe v. Wade decision that preempted the existence of some people who would be born to poverty and hardship. Elsewhere, by analyzing data gathered from inner-city Chicago drug-dealing gangs, Levitt outlines a corporate structure much like McDonald's, where the top bosses make great money while scores of underlings make something below minimum wage. And in a section that may alarm or relieve worried parents, Levitt argues that parenting methods don't really matter much and that a backyard swimming pool is much more dangerous than a gun. These enlightening chapters are separated by effusive passages from Dubner's 2003 profile of Levitt in The New York Times Magazine, which led to the book being written. In a book filled with bold logic, such back-patting veers Freakonomics, however briefly, away from what Levitt actually has to say. Although maybe there's a good economic reason for that too, and we're just not getting it yet. --John Moe

Book Description

Which is more dangerous, a gun or a swimming pool? What do schoolteachers and sumo wrestlers have in common? Why do drug dealers still live with their moms? How much do parents really matter? How did the legalization of abortion affect the rate of violent crime?

These may not sound like typical questions for an econo-mist to ask. But Steven D. Levitt is not a typical economist. He is a much-heralded scholar who studies the riddles of everyday life—from cheating and crime to sports and child-rearing—and whose conclusions turn conventional wisdom on its head.

Freakonomics is a groundbreaking collaboration between Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, an award-winning author and journalist. They usually begin with a mountain of data and a simple question. Some of these questions concern life-and-death issues; others have an admittedly freakish quality. Thus the new field of study contained in this book: freakonomics.

Through forceful storytelling and wry insight, Levitt and Dubner show that economics is, at root, the study of incentives—how people get what they want, or need, especially when other people want or need the same thing. In Freakonomics, they explore the hidden side of . . . well, everything. The inner workings of a crack gang. The truth about real-estate agents. The myths of campaign finance. The telltale marks of a cheating schoolteacher. The secrets of the Klu Klux Klan.

What unites all these stories is a belief that the modern world, despite a great deal of complexity and downright deceit, is not impenetrable, is not unknowable, and—if the right questions are asked—is even more intriguing than we think. All it takes is a new way of looking.

Freakonomics establishes this unconventional premise: If morality represents how we would like the world to work, then economics represents how it actually does work. It is true that readers of this book will be armed with enough riddles and stories to last a thousand cocktail parties. But Freakonomics can provide more than that. It will literally redefine the way we view the modern world.

Download Description

Which is more dangerous, a gun or a swimming pool? What do schoolteachers and sumo wrestlers have in common? Why do drug dealers still live with their moms? How much do parents really matter? What kind of impact did Roe v. Wade have on violent crime?

These may not sound like typical questions for an economist to ask. But Steven D. Levitt is not a typical economist. He is a much heralded scholar who studies the stuff and riddles of everyday life -- from cheating and crime to sports and child rearing -- and whose conclusions regularly turn the conventional wisdom on its head. He usually begins with a mountain of data and a simple, unasked question. Some of these questions concern life-and-death issues; others have an admittedly freakish quality. Thus the new field of study contained in this book: freakonomics.

Through forceful storytelling and wry insight, Levitt and co-author Stephen J. Dubner show that economics is, at root, the study of incentives -- how people get what they want, or need, especially when other people want or need the same thing. In Freakonomics, they set out to explore the hidden side of ... well, everything. The inner workings of a crack gang. The truth about real-estate agents. The myths of campaign finance. The telltale marks of a cheating schoolteacher. The secrets of the Ku Klux Klan.

What unites all these stories is a belief that the modern world, despite a surfeit of obfuscation, complication, and downright deceit, is not impenetrable, is not unknowable, and -- if the right questions are asked -- is even more intriguing than we think. All it takes is a new way of looking. Steven Levitt, through devilishly clever and clear-eyed thinking, shows how to see through all the clutter.

Freakonomics establishes this unconventional premise: If morality represents how we would like the world to work, then economics represents how it actually does work. It is true that readers of this book will be armed with enough riddles and stories to last a thousand cocktail parties. But Freakonomics can provide more than that. It will literally redefine the way we view the modern world.

Customer Reviews:

Bold interpretation and Out of the Box Perspective .......2007-10-17

The book is all about bold ideas connecting things in ways that seem quite logical at the end.

Lewitt covers a wide range of topics and links them up in interesting ways: incentive systems that motivate us in daily life, the surprising relationship between abortion and crime rate, how teachers are similar to sumo wrestlers when it comes to grading, and how statistics are often wrongly interpreted and are misused to spread the wrong idea about reality, how real estate agents operate quite like the ku-klux clan used to, how crack gangs run very much like large corporations where the guy at the bottom gets peanuts, how the people at the lower rung of the ladder keep running in hope that they'll make it big one day with the full knowledge that they only have a slight chance.

This is not a bland book on economics and statistics, but makes for an interesting read. The book is full of topics that might enhance your perspective a little bit and may make you take at all those wild newspaper polls with a grain of salt.

The way he relates Roe.Vs.Wade to falling crime rate is particularly interesting. Also, his chapter on crack gang dynamics based on actual research is thought provoking. Some of the facts that most crack dealers at the bottom hardly make money at all and how swimming pools are more dangerous than guns when it comes to kid safety may amaze some of us, but are quite real when you see the statistics.

The Antithesis of Your Memories of Econ 101.......2007-10-16

College economics was painfully dull and boring to me, but this book conveys economic concepts creatively ... so much so, it has served as inspiration in my own writing. Educational and deeply interesting, I finished this true gem faster than any book in recent memory.

Weak correlation does not equal causation.......2007-10-16

This book is trash. The authors ask strange questions and use very weak data correlation to prove even stranger answers, but the fact of the matter is that you can make statistics say ANYTHING YOU WANT, especially in a book where there in noone to call you out. Don't buy in to the nonsense put forth in this book, even though it has unfortunately become an Economics standard in America and the usage of these concepts on our economy has been devastating; it will take years to recover. Above all, this book makes attacks on personal morals and values. Unless you believe everyone in the world, to include yourself, is a liar and a cheat then don't bother with this literary garbage. I was forced to read it for an economics class, and once it was over I did something i've been whole-heartedly against my whole life; I went outside and I set this book on FIRE. Reject this book and it's concepts, for these concepts do nothing but make certain the poor remain miserable and the rich get to keep laughing at the poor.

Very compelling reading.......2007-10-15

This book will really change the way you look at the world. It asks and investigates the questions that no one else is asking and inspires the reader to question conventional wisdom in their everyday lives. Definitely worth reading.

Fascinating!.......2007-10-15

I loved this book. Some of the things politicians have taken credit for are not necessarily what they seem. If you are obsessed with "But why?" type of questions, you'll like this.

Statistics for Management and Economics (with CD-ROM and InfoTrac )

Average customer rating:

Not so good!

Statistics for Management and Economics (with CD-ROM and InfoTrac )
Gerald Keller
Manufacturer: South-Western College Pub
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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Book Description

This worldwide best-selling business statistics text teaches students how to apply statistics to real business problems through the author's unique three-step approach to problem solving. Students learn to IDENTIFY the right technique by focusing on the problem objective and data type. They then learn to COMPUTE the statistics either by hand, using Excel, or using MINITAB. Finally, they INTERPRET the results in the context of the problem. Keller's approach enhances student comprehension as well as practical skills. The book offers maximum flexibility to instructors wishing to teach concepts by hand or with the computer, or by using both hand and computer methods.

Customer Reviews:

Not so good!.......2005-12-10

Now in my second statistics course, I have a great base in statistics. This book seems to confuse everything that i've already learned. I would recommend using The Basic Practice of Statistics over this book anyday.

A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing, Ninth Edition

Average customer rating:

Quarterlife Finance says, "A Classic that Every Investor Should Read"
not a fan.
Excellent Message. Sweeps some exceptions (particularly those noted herein) under the rug.
Best guide ever
Still the Best

A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing, Ninth Edition
Burton G. Malkiel
Manufacturer: W. W. Norton
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

General | Popular Economics | Business & Investing | Subjects | Books

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ASIN: 0393062457

Book Description

The million-copy bestseller, revised and updated with new investment strategies for retirement and the most current research into behavioral finance.

Updated with a new chapter that draws on behavioral finance, the field that studies the psychology of investment decisions, here is the best-selling, authoritative, and gimmick-free guide to investing. Burton Malkiel evaluates the full range of investment opportunities, from stocks, bonds, and money markets to real estate investment trusts and insurance, home ownership, and tangible assets such as gold and collectibles. This edition includes new strategies for rearranging your portfolio for retirement, along with the book's classic life-cycle guide to investing, which matches the needs of investors in any age bracket. A Random Walk Down Wall Street long ago established itself as a must-read, the first book to purchase before starting a portfolio. So whether you want to brief yourself on the ways of the market before talking to a broker or follow Malkiel's easy steps to managing your own portfolio, this book remains the best investing guide money can buy.

Customer Reviews:

Quarterlife Finance says, "A Classic that Every Investor Should Read".......2007-10-03

I recently finished reading the 9th edition of Burton Malkiel's classic text A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing, Ninth Edition. First published in 1973, this book is a classic text that deserves a place on any investor's bookshelf.

Malkiel presents two possible security valuation models - one based on a firm foundation of value and one based on finding a "greater fool" to sell your speculative buys to. He analyzes the history of investment bubbles from the Dutch tulip mania some two hundred years ago all the way through the tech stock bubble of the late 1990s. He discusses fundamental analysis of stocks and thoroughly trashes technical analysis. Finally, Malkiel presents a strategy that virtually guarantees that your investments will keep pace with the market with minimal investment of time.

I enjoyed and recommend this book for several reasons. First and foremost, it blows the whistle on many common "beat the market" strategies, including all manner of technical analysis. As a relatively young investor, I was always intimidated by the chartist strategies (moving averages, buy points, etc) but after reading Malkiel there is no cause for fear. Those strategies simply do not work.

Moreover, I found the book to be an easy read relative to many texts on investment. While he covers different types of stock analysis, modern portfolio theory, the efficient market hypothesis, and asset allocation in detail, the book is not weighted down with too much heavy terminology. His writing style, use of historical anecdotes, and ability to challenge your beliefs again and again keeps you riveted to the book.

Finally, I believe that the strategies presented in the book are clear, concise, and can be employed by anyone to their immense gain. Too many people pay for poor investment advice, make mistakes by chasing gains and paying for active portfolio management, or even pay absurd 12b-1 fees on underperforming mutual fund investments. By reading this book and taking Malkiel's advice to heart, I believe that just about anyone can end up with more dollars in hand.

On the other hand, the book does delve into financial topics that may be intimidating for someone completely new to the investment world. The basic message (buy and hold a well-diversified portfolio of extremely low-cost index funds) could be expressed much more succinctly. However, I wouldn't change a thing with this book...just be prepared for a wild ride that challenges everything you thought you knew about investing.

not a fan........2007-10-03

This book was not what it was trumped up to be, as far as I am concerned. It's a gloomy, negative, pessimistic, unending drivel of known and common sense information and data presented in a much more complicated manner that they are in real life. After reading this book you may be inclined to start taking anti-depressants and definitely stay away from the stock and other securities markets. Weeooogh!!

Excellent Message. Sweeps some exceptions (particularly those noted herein) under the rug........2007-10-02

Particularly in a day and age where mutual funds are often touting themselves on the television, this book has an excellent, largely unbiased message for the average investor: buy low cost index funds and stay in them for the long haul.

The book is exceptionally well written, covering most of the lessons of an introductory to intermediate finance course in a very accessible format (i.e. all the right *ideas* without the confusing math). He utilizes dozens of powerful examples and good data to show that his basic premise, despite now being 30 years old, is sound. Due to its theoretical strength and accessible style, this book could be of particular value to Undergrad Business and MBA students who find the professor's academic approach to an Introductory Finance course confusing. Get the big picture here, making the math just that much easier to follow. (5 stars for making difficult financial concepts readable and interesting)

Despite my strong recommendation for both his message and style, the book does have some drawbacks. Number one is that he has clearly taken a side on the issue and has thrown impartiality to the wind. Regularly, the author depends on "transaction costs" (the cost to trade) to ensure that a trading strategy cannot beat his preferred portfolio (implying that it would have succeeded without the transaction costs). This "sweeps under the rug" several clear counter-examples to the basic efficient market thesis in order to reinforce his index-investment message. While I understand his reasoning for doing so -- a desire not to encourage investment in high cost funds or heaven forbid day trading -- it does lead to some skepticism about his willingness to admit any possibility that his thesis has weaknesses. To that end, I would discourage readers who are familiar with CAPM and efficient-markets from reading the book (2 stars as a brush up).

In the end, however, I think the message is sound. Rather than cite trading costs, I think the message can effectively be said another way: If you spent 5h a day investigating stocks, what are the odds that you can beat a professional manager? If a manager has a staff of 20 that invest 8h per day investigating stocks, what are the odds that they're going to beat the whole financial services industry? If the whole industry is taking advantage of every opportunity to profit from small deviations, and you're going to pay a manager most if not all of that profit anyway, investing in an index basically gets you the benefit of thousands of mutual funds and investment bankers without the cost of any of them (or of your time to do research).

With qualifications to the highly technical reader, who should pass on the book, I can't, in good conscience, fail to give this book 5 stars for a profoundly valuable message targeted at the individual investor.

Best guide ever.......2007-10-02

A good informative writing on the handling of your finances in regards to investing. I found it to be quite basic but I have been investing since a club in the 1960's. It still gave me a lot of information and ideas that I knew a little or nothing on. I would recommend it highly to any and all that wish to have anything in the future for their retirement.

Still the Best.......2007-09-10

I first read this book in its seventh edition. I was great then. I recently purchased the ninth edition as a "refresher." It's still a great book and the one I recommend to prospective clients or other investors prone to believe all of the active management garbage out there. Burton Malkiel does a masterful job of dismantling all of the Wall Street hype and laying out investing in a simple, straight-forward, and long-term approach.

If you read this book and still believe in the Wall Street gurus then you're hopeless. And, you deserve every bit of the bad advice you're following.

Multivariate Data Analysis (6th Edition)

Average customer rating:

Best general Multivariate stats book
Probably the best advanced stats book ever written...GOD bless the authors!
Sure it's good, and a good price by the pund too!
Good for a second stats course & reference
simple but great!!

Multivariate Data Analysis (6th Edition)
Joseph F. Hair , Bill Black , Barry Babin , Rolph E. Anderson , and Ronald L. Tatham
Manufacturer: Prentice Hall
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0130329290

Book Description

Well-suited for the non-statistician, this applications-oriented introduction to multivariate analysis focuses on the fundamental concepts that affect the use of specific techniques rather than the mathematical derivation of the technique. Provides an overview of several techniques and approaches that are available to analysts today — e.g., data warehousing and data mining, neural networks and resampling/bootstrapping. Chapters are organized to provide a practical, logical progression of the phases of analysis and to group similar types of techniques applicable to most situations.

Customer Reviews:

Best general Multivariate stats book.......2007-06-07
This is without question THE BEST introduction to Multivariate Statistics book currently available. It is designed for the user of the techniques, not someone who wants to examine the math underlying the techniques. I have created a collection of the various editions of this book and I have all of them going from the 1st edition to the current one. Personally I really likely the 2nd and 3rd editions but the current one is also very good. Whether you are interested in Exploratory Factor Analysis, Multiple Regression Analysis, Discriminant Analysis [I think that there should have been more on classification analysis in this section], Logistic regression, multivariate analysis of variance, conjoint analysis, cluster analysis, multidimensional scaling, Confirmatory Factor Analysis or Structural Equation Modeling, this book provides a good broad overview as to how to use and interpret the techniques. The key terms for each technique are defined clearly technique by technique. Having taught faculty how to teach multivariate statistics this is the book that I chose to use. It is important to remember that it is BROAD overview and if you are going to do serious analyses that you'd likely want to get additional books about the specific technique or techniques that you are going to use.
Probably the best advanced stats book ever written...GOD bless the authors!.......2007-05-12
Over the course of my undergrad, grad, and post grad, I have read a variety of statistics books. Without a doubt, Hair's Multivariate Data Analysis is THE BEST book of them all. Here is a brief outline of the awesome features of the book:

1. The book itself is very well organized - chapter order and the order within each chapter helps the reader in knowing what is coming next and provides a sense of direction. I think this is a very important feature for any book to have especially when the topics are complex and are discussed over 800 odd pages.

2. The HBAT data set that comes along with the book (or that is provided by the instructor of the course depending on the version of the book you purchase) is really a very good resource. All multivariate techniques in the book can be carried out using this data set. The data set is clearly explained at the end of the first chapter.

3. Tables of examples, the 'Rules of thumb" after each important concept discussion prove invaluable. This is akin to the managerial implication written at the end of lenghty academic articles. This is almost like saying - Here is the deal folks.....Much precise than the summary section, in bullet points, these rules of thumb acts as quick referece that captures the content of the discussion.

4. From chapter 4 onwards till the very end of the book, each chapter is divided into two halves - the first half is the concept dicsussion - in detail, with examples and in very simple and understandable language. The second half is the illustration of the discussed concept through a very elaborate example using the HBAT data set. This arrangement not only helps the reader in better understanding the complex concepts, but also allows the reader to get their hands dirty by actually working out.

5. Keywords at the begining of each chapter provides a list of all the 'jargon' that would be used in that chapter. This list provides a detail definition of each term. Many times while reading the chapter, you would come across a confusing term and in those times the keyword list can prove invaluable.

All in all, this is an invaluable book. If you are a taking stats and you have not read this book, you are missing something. In spite of all the above great things, the best feature of this book is the writing style. I have not come across a book that explains concepts is such easy to understand language but at the same time not over simplifying the subject matter.
My advanced stats became enjoyable because of this book. Really may GOD bless these authors for writing this book!!
Sure it's good, and a good price by the pund too!.......2005-10-26
A pretty good overview and a lot of in-depth material on Multivariate data analysis. Not quite a bed time read though.

I recommend this book as part of your analytical library.

If you liked this book, another good book on multivariate data analysis you may want to check out as well is Sharma, S.; Applied Multivariate Techniques, New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1996.

If you want something easier to read/more practical, and you prefer SPSS over SAS you may want to check out either `Discovering Statistics using SPSS for Windows' by Andy Field, or probably even better/simpler `SPSS Survival Manual' by Pallant.

Tom Anderson
Anderson Analytics, LLC
(...)
Good for a second stats course & reference.......2005-08-03
We used this book for our Stats 2 course in grad school, and although our professor was good enough to eclipse Hair, et al. (he had written his own Stats text), I am most pleased at how much mileage I have drawn from Hair, et al. in the years since I took the course. In my subsequent career, reviewers have often sent me back to Hair, et al. when they have questions about something I'm doing with a data analysis, so it has become an invaluable reference for that reason alone.

The chapters on structural equation modeling, MANOVA, and factor analysis are particularly useful and well-written. I recommend this book without reservations for graduate students and others who work with advanced statistics as part of their daily work.
simple but great!!.......2005-06-02
I used this book as a reference on the topics while I was working on a research project at the university. Because the book does not use complex mathematics to explain the multivariate statistics, it is easy for social sciences students to understand. Each chapter starts with an overview, step-by step procedures and ends with an example from the data set that is used throughout the book.

In addition to the common topics in multivariate, the book also includes the new analysis techniques as CHAID, neural network, and data mining.

Average customer rating:

Unfortunately Book Required By Professor!

Poorly written freshman level probability and statistics book

Very poorly written.

Disappointing

An "easy" introduction but lacks content

Introduction to Probability and Statistics
William Mendenhall
Manufacturer: Brooks/Cole
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0534418708

Book Description
Used by hundreds of thousands of students since its first edition, INTRODUCTION TO PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS continues to blend the best of its proven coverage with new innovations. While retaining the straightforward presentation and traditional outline for descriptive and inferential statistics, the Twelfth Edition incorporates exciting new learning aids like MyPersonal Trainer, MyApplet, and MyTip to ensure that students learn and understand the relevance of the material. The book takes advantage of modern technology, including computational software and interactive visual tools, to facilitate statistical reasoning as well as the understanding and interpretation of statistical results. In addition to showing how to apply statistical procedures, the authors explain how to meaningfully describe real sets of data, what the statistical tests mean in terms of their practical applications, how to evaluate the validity of the assumptions behind statistical tests, and what to do when statistical assumptions have been violated. This new edition retains the statistical integrity, examples, exercises and exposition that have made it a market leader, and builds upon this tradition of excellence with new technology integration.
Customer Reviews:

Unfortunately Book Required By Professor!.......2007-09-09
I purchased textbook because it was required by my Biostatistics professor in my graduate program. Personally, I do not like the book. It makes problems more complicated than they need to be. I feel a good textbook is one in which you can read on your own and basically understand it without a whole lot of instruction and review by your professor. It would be very difficult to just read this textbook and then take an exam. I have only had the book for several weeks and I think it makes Biostats more complicated. I did purchase the supplement that goes with it, which is good for practice and the CD allows you to take self-test. If you are not savvy in stats, purchasing the supplemental practice book may be the thing for you to do if your professor requires use of the textbook.
Poorly written freshman level probability and statistics book.......2007-07-19
First, I cant believe that people actually used this book in a graduate class. I taught out of this book to freshmen.

A lot of the notation in this book is horrible and I feel this makes it harder for people new to the subject to read. Also there are very few exercises for the students to practice. In addition, too many of the answers in the back of the book are incorrect (this really confuses students).

I will not be teaching out of this book again.
Very poorly written........2004-03-15
I had to buy this book for an introductory graduate stats class. This book assumes you have some knowledge of stats and so provides very brief explanations for most concepts. This is a big problem for students with little or no stats background.
Another problem is that there are too few examples. Considering their meager explanations, one would hope they would at least provide enough examples to help students understand the concepts. But they usually provide only one or two problems, which are woefully inadequate.
Also, the CD is totally useless. Most of the practice is multiple choice, which I think is pretty silly for a stats class. In addition, there is no explanation for how they got to the answer, so if you can't figure it out and choose the wrong answer, you're out of luck for any explanation.
I stopped using this book for my course and instead began using Elementary Statistics, A Step by Step Approach by Bluman. This book is excellent; it explains everything from step 1. There are also many, many examples and lots of pictures to help you further understand stats. Also, they explain very clearly when you should use the different formulas, which I found extremely helpful in bringing all the concepts together.
Disappointing.......2004-01-16
The text we used for our undergrad Stats class covered the exact same material as this text, which we used for a graduate level class and which cost about 60 bucks more, but the undergrad text was written more clearly, concisely and logically. We even found a mistake in one of the tables in the back of this book.
An "easy" introduction but lacks content.......2003-09-18
Author: Computer Science/Mathematics Undergraduate at Cameron University
This book was required for an introductory non-calculus based statistics course at my school and it turned out to be a mixed bag. The theories are explained well in most cases but the book doesn't have enough examples for all of the theorems. Many times only one case is explained in dynamic situations leaving this reader more than a little lost. Usually the theorems are explained well enough that this is not a big deal, but not so in every case. So there tends to be those points where the student may get a little stuck without assistance from their professor.
Another problem I found was that the book was a little bit dumbed down in many areas. This book uses no calculus, so the theories are presented often without the mathematical rigor required to properly formulate accurate results. The book still presents the theorems and formulas in a way where the student can get something out of this without calculus, but it becomes a problem later in the book in the sections on regression. For a non-calculus based class like the one I took, this is all unavoidable, so the book handled the situation well considering the constraints.
This book presents a very light introduction to statistics and is good prep for more advanced statistics courses, but as a stand-alone only the most basic material is presented since it is non-calculus based and the material is spread thin between combinatorics, probability, binomial distributions, normal distributions, t distributions, ANOVA tests, regression, non-parametric statistics, etc... To attain a significant amount of useful knowledge you really need to buy separate books tackling each of these subjects independantly, so this book is really unneccessary even for an introductory text but might serve well the student who needs to be eased into statistics lightly or just wants a brief overview of the subject.

Average customer rating:

Fantastic book!

Stats and Andy Field

Easy Read and Comprehensive too

Outstanding Source for SPSS

Better than any graduate level statistics course I have taken

Discovering Statistics Using SPSS (Introducing Statistical Methods S.) (2nd Edition)
Andy Field
Manufacturer: Sage Publications
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Paperback

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ASIN: 0761944524

Book Description
Get the Statistics Book That's Sweeping the Nation!

Appropriate for All Levels--Undergraduate to Doctorate Programs in Every Discipline!

This new edition of Field's bestselling textbook provides students of statistical methods with everything they need to understand, use and report statistics - at every level. Written in Andy Field's vivid and entertaining style, and furnished with playful examples from everyday student life (among other places), the book forms an accessible gateway into the often intimidating world of statistics and a unique opportunity for students to ground their knowledge of statistics through the use of SPSS. The text is fully compliant with the latest release of SPSS (version 13).

Key updates in Second Edition:

- More coverage with completely new material on non-parametric statistics, loglinear analysis, effect sizes and how to report statistical analysis

- Even more student-friendly features, including a glossary of key statistical terms and exercises at the end of chapters for students to work through, with datasets and answers to chapter exercises on the accompanying CD-ROM

- A larger and more easy-to-reference format: notation in each section identifies the intended level of study while the new 2-color text design enhances the features in the book and, together with the larger format, provides extra clarity throughout

- A companion website is available at www.sagepub.co.uk/field, containing resources for both students and instructors: a testbank of MCQs for students to test their own knowledge; online glossary in flash card format; multiple choice questions and answers to use for class assessment â€“ available on restricted access basis to instructors via entry password; and PowerPoint Slides of all formatted artwork in the textbook for instructors to include in their own lecture slides.

Andy Field is a Senior Lecturer in Psychology at The University of Sussex, U.K. where his success in making statistics accessible was recognized with a teaching award in 2001.

"The Second Edition of Andy Field's Discovering Statistics Using SPSS is an excellent book and a valuable addition to the teaching of statistics in the behavioral sciences. The title of the book accurately reflects the approach taken. This is not simply a primer on how to use SPSS, but is a very good statistics text using SPSS as a vehicle for illustrating and expanding on the statistical content of the book. At the same time it also serves as a manual for SPSS, and has taught me things that I had not known about the software. I find this flexible approach to the blending of content and software to be an effective way of teaching the material. It is impossible to review this book without commenting on Andy's particular style. I enjoyed it immensely and think that it would appeal to both students and their instructors. It is refreshing to see someone who doesn't take himself too seriously."
-- David C Howell, Professor Emeritus, University of Vermont

Customer Reviews:

Fantastic book!.......2007-09-30
I could not have lived through my dissertation without this book. It finally helped me to conceptually understand statistics.

Also,(many of) his jokes are belly-busting funny. I used one humorous musing in my oral defense about Fisher's alpha levels:"I wonder how different my career would be if Fisher had woken up that day in 90% type of mood."
Stats and Andy Field.......2007-08-19
Andy's book is an excellent aid in learning statistics. If you want the executive summary (aka cliff notes), Andy provides sections where you can get a quick overview of a specific test. If you want the details, Andy provides those also in his book.

I used his book to help me in my doctoral quest, when I was in my second statistics class as a supplemental text. However, it is of a quality that any person seeking to learn more about stats will come away with knowledge of how stats can help us know more about the world in which we live.
Easy Read and Comprehensive too.......2007-08-04
In my job, I often train others how to use SPSS. This book comes up in conversation a lot. It is outstanding. I have come to the conclusion that if a serious user of SPSS's statistical features is to get only one reference; this is it. Something I have noticed is that when I meet someone that has spent time with the book, the are invariably quite good at SPSS. Even if they may not have mastered all the techniques in this large book, they know their stuff.

The Pallant book SPSS Survival Manual, which I have also reviewed, is designed to help survive a first course (and presumably last) in basic statistics. The Field book, however, could be revisited again and again, each time reaching a deeper understanding.

I already know the statistics in this book well, so I can't claim that this book has taught me the basics, but it simultaneously covers all the major topics of interest while keeping it as simple as possible. I wish I had existed earlier in my career. The main advantage to users of SPSS is that all of the examples are SPSS examples. However, make no mistake, this is a serious introduction to statistics, not merely a point and click guide. It is not current with version 15.0, but I don't think this is a major strike against it, given the excellent review of theory. If, however, you really need to keep up on the current features like I do, you will want to consider books in addition this one. Consider one or more of the three Norusis books depending on your level and needs.
Outstanding Source for SPSS.......2007-07-15
This is one of the best statistics and SPSS guidebooks that I have seen. I believe that it can be very useful for novice to expert. It is both technical and conceptual and can function as a textbook for statistics as well as an operational handbook for navigating through SPSS. Although it is based on SPSS 13.0, I have found it to be quite applicable to the SPSS version 15.0 that I am using. This book is an invaluable source for the completion of my doctoral dissertation and I would highly recommend it for the student or advanced statistician! B. Cliff, PhD Candidate, Western Michigan University
Better than any graduate level statistics course I have taken.......2007-06-14
I am a 4th year PhD student and wish I had discovered this book earlier. It is far better than any of the graduate level statistics course I have taken, and definitely better than any of the textbooks I have seen. In fact, I have thrown out all my other statistics textbooks - this is the only one I need. Aside from explaining the theory in an easy to understand way, Andy Field provides the practical aspect that no other texts or courses do (or, if they do, they fail to link it to the theory). Field shows you how to use SPSS to implement the theory in an easy, step by step way; he even tells you how to report the results in APA format. Don't waste your money on any other statistics textbooks!

Average customer rating:

Elementary statistics-not

Trash -- utter trash.

Does the trick

Elementary Statistics

Really good book for a basic course!

Elementary Statistics (10th Edition)
Mario F. Triola
Manufacturer: Addison Wesley
ProductGroup: Book
Binding: Hardcover

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ASIN: 0321331834

Book Description
Addison-Wesley is proud to celebrate the Tenth Edition of Elementary Statistics. This text is highly regarded because of its engaging and understandable introduction to statistics. The author's commitment to providing student-friendly guidance through the material and giving students opportunities to apply their newly learned skills in a real-world context has made Elementary Statistics the #1 best-seller in the market.
Customer Reviews:

Elementary statistics-not.......2007-08-28
This book was for a elementary statistics class. This book to me was not easy to use. The examples where very hard to follow and didn't make sense most of the time. The book was used for a online stats class thank god my professor provided great notes and examples, cause if I had to just depend on this books examples I would have made a BIG FAT "F". The author should think about making this book more user friendly.
Trash -- utter trash........2007-04-16
I am saddened to see the textbook community to mistake color, flash, graphics, and artifical examples as quality textbook. Although I understand they need to market, this book demonstrates the effect of marketing upon education.

My students complain that the text is difficult to read. Although I know they are new, I have to agree with their opinion. I sat and read the text -- and found it lacking respectable composition and clarity. I feel for my students and will not use the text again.

In addition, the examples are useless. They match the homework at the end of the chapter, but only "teach to the test". What's the point if the student don't learn methods on how to critically think and approach problems? Oh wow, they know what P(Z>1) is, but what do they know to do with it? Nothing!

Perhaps it is time for the educational community to produce their own compact books, customized to what students (and not publishers) need. I cannot recommend this book for anyone and would beg you to reconsider.
Does the trick.......2007-03-21
I think it's a well written book and it simplifies concepts well enough so that you can understand them better.
Elementary Statistics .......2007-02-22
This was the worst book I have ever come across. The only thing this "book" had was definitions in it. Definitions are fine for other subject, but not for a math subject where formulas are important. I am also disappointed at the fact that this was not a text, but a "study guide" for the text. perhaps this would be useful for someone who was going to take a CLEP test or something.
Really good book for a basic course!.......2007-01-03
I purchased this book for a basic statistic course. It's easy to understand and the best way to get an idea of statistic without long formulas or derivations. Recommandable for basic and intermediate stat-classes!

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interesting

The Black Swan and What's Wrong with Nassim Taleb's Viewpoint

Bell curve Intellectual fraud

The World of Unknown Unknowns

Interesting, but long-winded

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Manufacturer: Random House
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ASIN: 1400063515
Release Date: 2007-04-17

Amazon.com
Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.

Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson

Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.

The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."

In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson

Book Description
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.
Customer Reviews:

interesting.......2007-10-17
I like the fact that he presents things differently, even though he seems a little bit to "conscious" and proud of this... :)

Good book generally.
The Black Swan and What's Wrong with Nassim Taleb's Viewpoint.......2007-10-17
I'm 94 percent through reading Nassim Taleb's remarkable book about random events having higher than expected occurrence throughout history. I'm an unusual reader however in that many of the people he's met, read about and formed friendships with, I've also had the opportunity to meet, read about or write to. Being the "loner" that I am however, unlike Mr. Taleb, I didn't form friendships with these guys. Didier Sornette and Benoit Mandlebrot are two of his hero's if I can use poetic license, whose works I've followed throughout the years and as an applied scientist working first in the aerospace and auto industry, and now in finance, have had a chance to apply their work and ideas to real world problems. However, I've also been a student of Newton, Kelvin and Einstein all of whom would and did make room for the "Gaussian" curve that Mr. Taleb has disgust for. I would also fall into one of Mr. Taleb's cohorts with whom he has high disdain, since I also was educated in physics and mathematics in the usual academic curriculum. This being the case, I feel I have some credibility to offer a secondary review of his work having used the tools of "Extremistan" as he calls it.

To begin, there are many statements in his book that I agree with. The Nobel self-congratulatory awards, the assertion of many academics to request a mathematical proof of his "theory", the view that mathematics exists only in the mind for nature offers neither a true square, diamond, or triangle, the lack of an explanation for the observation of highly probable events and his continued persistence that an explanation isn't necessary are just an example of his high intellect that in the "real world" we all come to appreciate and assume some brotherhood with this smart-alec of a man. However, there is clearly a mischievousness in his demeanor that snickers at anybody who disagrees with him that is uncalled for. This appears as high arrogance that rightly his mother ascertained from his character when she said to him, "if you can get people to pay you what you think you're worth, instead of what you're really worth, then you've got something".

Let me make a thoughtful empirical criticism which underpins Mr. Taleb's ranting and raving in the book. Mr. Taleb says on page 281 of the Black Swan, "you need one simple deviation to reject the Gaussian, but millions of observations will not fully confirm the validity of its application. Why? Because the Gaussian bell curve disallows large deviations, but tools of Extremistan, the alternative, do not disallow long quiet stretches". His overall argument fails on this one simple account: there are more than one cause in effect for almost all known observations of any phenomena in the universe. What's typically done in physics is to attempt to understand the strongest influencers of an outcome, not ALL of the influencers of an outcome. He fails to understand that it's not one distribution or one cause in effect, but always multiple causes occuring. Extreme events have a different mechanism that triggers cascades while every-day events, those occurring that aren't extreme have a separate cause. One only enters into the conundrum of explanation when you try and link all observations, both from his world of Extremistan and Mediocracistan together into one cause. This is never the case in any phenomena I've ever dealt with or heard about, from weather forecasting, fluid dynamics, heat transfer, chemical kinetics, or the financial markets. There are competing effects going on, not just one. Some trigger daily and can be observed regularly, some trigger every 100 years or more.

Take for example his principal teacher of Black Swans, the financial markets. Okay, so thirsty bubbles, credit crunches, LTCM, October 1987, August 2007 occurred and weren't explained by the "Gaussian" model. Well, for ease of explanation, say there were two underlying distributions with two completely different mechanisms involved. One cause of market movements say, results in a distribution of returns modeled like a Gaussian and the other cause, is best explained by some distribution that has extreme tails, infinite variance and allows for discontinuous jumps. I have yet to meet a physicist or mathematician who wouldn't agree with this and it satisfies Mr. Taleb's points exactly. What he fails to comprehend I believe, is that multiple causes are in effect simultaneously in any problem I've ever encountered, each resulting in its own distribution of outcomes. What's not separable and creating havoc in explanation, are the multiple causes that create the underlying distributions and/or which cause has what distribution?

As a practicing computational and modeling scientist since 1987, I see Mr. Taleb's book as delightfully playful, but certainly amateurish. His understanding of science is quite ignorant really. I was amazed at the name dropping, though he continually disavows making a habit of it. And why Mr. Taleb can't see to find anybody but Herr Dr. Professor Mandlebrot to agree with him is beyond me? Perhaps the physicists he did find who agreed with him, weren't quite as famous as they needed to be, to be quoted in his book. Lastly, being a student of history that Mr. Taleb purports to be, I was amazed he didn't dig up these two quotations, one from the supreme empiricist Isacc Newton and the second from the best theorist I know, Albert Einstein:

Thus far I have explained the phenomena of the heavens and of our sea by the force of gravity, but I have not yet assigned a cause to gravity. I have not as yet been able to deduce from phenomena the reason for these properties of gravity. For whatever is not deduced from the phenomena must be called a hypothesis; and hypotheses whether metaphysical or physical, or based on occult qualities or mechanical, have no place in experimental philosophy.
I. Newton

Newton forgive me; you found the only way which in your age was just about possible for a person with the highest powers of thought and creativity. The concepts which you created are guiding our thinking in physics even today, although we now know that they will have to be replaced by others farther removed from the sphere of immediate experience, for we know that science cannot grow out of empiricism alone.
A. Einstein

I would say that one can't predict extreme events so one doesn't model them generally. It's not a failure of "modelers" as Mr. Taleb suggests, but of tackling simpler problems first. We didn't throw Newton out when his laws failed to account for relativistic velocity; we shouldn't throw Markowitz, Merton, Sharpe, Black and Scholes out either for their early contributions. Sure, they'll be overtaken by Rachev and the Levy-Stable distribution function but in 1968, who could compute a numerical basis function on a piece of paper since computers were hardly around! The Gaussian was used simply because you could compute it; it had a closed form analytical equation.

Bell curve Intellectual fraud.......2007-10-16
Didier says, "A crash occurs when order wins. In stable markets buyers and sellers balance out each other, normal times are when disorder wins. When the imitation strength K gets close to a special critical value Kc, a very large group of investors share the same opinion, a may act in a coordinated way, an abrupt drop in price, infinite slope K/Kc, a crash occurs. "New demographic, technological, or economic developments prompt spontaneous innovation in financial markets and the first wave of investors and innovators become wealthy. Then imitators arrive and overdo the new techniques. In the ensuing crises, latecomers lose big before regulators and academics put out fires."

Taleb says that the human suffers from three ailments: 1. the illusion of understanding, orhow everyone thinks he know what is going on in a world that is more complicated or random than they realize. 2. the retrospective distortion, or how we can assess matters only after the fact, as if they were in a rearview mirror (history seems clearer and more organized in history books than in empirical reality). 3. the overvaluation of factual information and the handicap of authoritative and learned people, particularly when they create categories-when they platonify" Taleb hedges with puts in calls that are designed to make money when a black swan occurs and that is all that matters.

Properities of Extremistan: Scalable; Wild randomness; the member is either a giant or a dwarf - strong inequalities in the extreme; winner take almost all effects; vulnerable to the Black Swan; total will be determined by a small number of events; hard to predict from past information; history makes jumps; and the distribution is either Mandelbrotian gray Swans or totally intractable black Swans.

"Gaussian-bell curve variations face a headwind that makes probabilities drop at a faster and faster rate as you move away from the mean, while scalables or mandelbrotian variations, do not have such a restriction." Didier demonstrated using a log periodicity equation that sudden changes could occur and that stock market crashes followed a curve. I observed that Didier used fractuals and mandelbrots, in his book.

Gaussian bell curve did not provide an accurate prediction of reality for the German dutschmark when in the 1920, four trillion were exchanged for one dollar. "An outcome that tells you that the bell curve is meaningless as a description of the randomness in currency fluctuations. All you need to reject the bell curve is for such a movement to occur once - just consider the consequences." The bell curve is used as a risk-measurement tool by regulators and central bankers. The point of Gaussian bell curve is that most observations hover around the mediocre, the average. A gaussian bell curve of men reaching 9 feet 1 inch is one in one with 100 zeros behind it. So if you see a nine foot Chinese, according to the bell curve that is impossible and yet the possibility does exist. Suppose an increasing number of 8 foot Chinese emerge and suddenly a nine foot Chinese exist then pay attention to the black swan. The black swan is impossible according to the bell curve but its random existence should cause one to pay attention.

Outsourcing has not caused America to bankrupt. Wealth is scalable because workers have shifted into a post-industrial society were ideas are valuable. For example, software is scalable, costing almost nothing to produce but capable of generating massive amounts of wealth. "The inequality among the superrich is the same as the inequality among the simply rich-it does not slow down" "For any large total, the breakdown will be more and more asymmetric". Work is unfair. One programmer may be capable of producing more power designs and code than twenty of his peers. "The 80/20 rule is metaphorical; it is not a rule, even less a rigid law." In some situations you may have a concentration of the 80/20 type and you can identify beforehand where the 20 percent are. Why is the bell curve so popular? The Bell Curve allows for certainties to exist and confidence to increase; the bell curve disregards the possibility of sharp jumps or discontinuities and are inapplicable to extremistan; large unpredictable deviations are rare, but can not be dismissed; the Gaussian way is to focus on the ordinary; if there is gravity pulling numbers down that we have the gaussian approach, but if we have a singularity emerges than a rarity of enormous magnitude has occurred, a black swan, an anti-gravity field canceling out gravity, a inward spiral of energy, to a single point; the mediocristan type of randomness does not allow for some extremes; the consequence of variation (errors) around the average of gaussian are not truly worrisome. Fuzzy Logic is better than probability. Fuzzy logical explains the chance that a possibility will occur. Probability predicts whether something will exist and may exclude things that rarely exist. It gets worse, standard deviations outside the gaussian do not matter and gaussian are the only class of distributions that standard deviation describe.

What causes catastrophes? "Statistics is not a science, it is a fraud." Divergence form the mean was considered an error. Marx picked up on this and promoted the idea of average man. "The notion of the average man is steeped in the culture attending the birth o the European middle class, the nascent post-Napoleonic shopkeeper's culture, chary of excessive wealth and intellectual brilliance." The outcome is a society without any deviate outcomes. Nervousness caused from disbelief causes catastrophes.

The World of Unknown Unknowns.......2007-10-15
NNT's use of a "narrative" strategy based on a questionable premise (did the sighting of the first black swan in Australia really impact the world?) to attract readers has paid dividends and his book has attained Grey Swan status among Amazon's Business & Investing bestsellers. The author, as he admits, has clearly enjoyed the writing experience which, besides dealing with the Impact of the Highly Improbable, has enabled him to sideswipe individuals and groups he sees mired in a world of Gaussian illusion.

On reading the book for the second time I kept asking myself "is this new to me?" and, if it is, "what is its relevance to me?". On reviewing one's own life to date, as the author recommends, it is clear that much of it has indeed been determined by high-impact unforeseeable events. This does not come as a great surprise - but then Taleb says that it never does, in retrospect! This contrasts with the chilling realization that there are almost certainly more such occurrences ahead. It is interesting to read explanations for why humans "don't know they don't know" they live in an extreme world but many, without realizing it, will already be familiar with psychological phenomena such as "platonism", "tunnelling", "confirmation bias" and the "narrative fallacy".

Interestingly, Taleb seems to miss what could well be the main reason why individuals "don't know they don't know": they just don't want to know they don't know they don't know! It seems to be a natural human reaction to put one's head in the sand when faced with the possibility of unforeseeable, high impact, possibly negative, events - particularly when they believe they can do nothing about them.

What, perhaps, is newer and more relevant to many is the fact that the professionals apparently rely on defective tools for analysing their particular piece of reality. Having some knowledge of the financial world and its questionable mathematical models, I can readily believe that many professionals - and even Nobel Prize winners - are led astray by the humble Bell Curve, as Taleb suggests. In fact the reasonably experienced small investor already has little faith in market "experts". On the other hand this same investor does not automatically transfer his scepticism to experts in other important fields, such as the social sciences, economics, environmental studies and military planning, where predictive errors can be far deadlier.

Besides peppering his text with the names and contributions of important thinkers - apparently a deliberate technique to achieve greater credibility - Taleb gives us some fascinating theory in the shape of non-linear relationships, the limitations of the Gaussian distribution, and the ability of so-called "power laws" to turn some Black Swans into Grey Swans. However this review stops a long way from demonstrating that life is largely determined by full-blooded (i.e. totally unpredictable) Black Swans.

Although I don't think that Taleb will make us see our lives in a totally new light it is important that he reminds us - in case 24-hour world news ever allows us to forget - that day-to-day affairs can be subject to unforeseen, and potentially devastating, modification. He also offers us the flip side: some ideas on how we can take advantage of positive Black Swans. It may be due to a lack of imagination but, not being a venture capitalist or a "quant", I couldn't immediately see measures of easy application in this area. Defence against Black Swans seems easier, namely diversification across very disparate fields. Taleb himself suggests a portfolio composed of up to 90% of extremely safe financial instruments (like Treasury bills) and as little as 10% in leveraged speculative bets like options (ideally involving "venture-capital style portfolios"). His general advise is more homely: learn to recognise undertakings exposed to positive and negative Black Swans, don't be narrow minded, seize opportunities, be wary of government plans, etc.

Many interested in the impact of randomness will find the book a good, if fairly demanding, read. In the end, however, it is not entirely satisfactory. This has something to do with the fact that rather than be carried long by a limpid river of reasoning we are subjected to an avalanche of opinionative observations, some relevant, some less so. Some readers might also find many of the chapter and section headings irritating: "The Vagueness of Catherine's Lover Count", "How many Wittgenstein's can dance on the head of a pin?", etc. I suppose its all part of the relatively successful effort to make randomness fun. But although we'd enjoy seeing pompous academics and self-satisfied hedge-fund partners squirming with mice down their necks is it really necessary to rub the long-suffering French up the wrong way?

Interesting, but long-winded.......2007-10-15
Interesting perspective. Shows how unpredictable large-impact events shape life and why we must watch out for these. But you need patience to go thro the 300+ pages. Taleb spends more pages on what Black Swans are and their impact, less on what one can do to lessen their impact. Would love to hear more on what he recommends, though I will take them with a 'handful' of salt....I am as skeptical of experts as he is

Average customer rating:
Business Statistics: A Decision-Making Approach and Student CD Update Package (6th Edition)
David F. Groebner , Patrick W. Shannon , Phillip C. Fry , and Kent D. Smith
Manufacturer: Prentice Hall
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Binding: Hardcover

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Didn't find it helpful

Great for people who ask "but why..." at the end of every statement.

Good moral support

Fantastic Statistics Resource

Wow! Clear, Concise, Excellent Book

Essentials of Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences
Frederick J Gravetter , and Larry B. Wallnau
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Study Guide for Gravetter/Wallnau's Essentials of Statistics for the Behavioral Sciences, 5th

ASIN: 053463396X

Book Description
This brief version of Gravetter and Wallnau's proven best-seller offers the straightforward instruction, accuracy, built-in learning aids, and wealth of real-world examples that professors AND students have come to appreciate. The authors take time to explain statistical procedures so that students can go beyond memorizing formulas and gain a conceptual understanding of statistics. By integrating applications to ensure that even students with a weak background in mathematics can understand statistics, the authors skillfully demonstrate that having an understanding of statistical procedures help them comprehend published findings, and become savvy consumers of information. Known for its exceptional accuracy and examples, this text also has a complete supplements package to support instructors with class preparation and testing.
Customer Reviews:

Didn't find it helpful.......2007-09-02
I didn't find this a helpful assistance to the text. It didn't give any explanations to the formulas or shortcuts that I expected. It was more like a dictionary for the text book (words and definitions).
Great for people who ask "but why..." at the end of every statement. .......2006-05-10
This book is absolutely excellent. I have looked through other stats books and lost interest immediately, but this book is written in such a way that it actually makes you want to learn the material. Rather than just telling you how to solve the problem, the authors inform you as to why learning it is necessary, and frequently give you real-life, interesting scenarios regarding how specific formulas are used by psychologists.

Statistics, of course, becomes progressively more difficult over time, and you may need to seek outside help once you reach the last few chapters in particular. However, I believe that this book is the best of its kind, and it might be worth purchasing even if it is not your primary source for class, etc.
Good moral support.......2006-03-23
My first impression was that this book was priceless since it really helped me through the first couple of chapters in the main text. At the beginning it goes into lengthy, step-by-step instructions. I may not have felt as confident in the class if it had not been for this supplement. Once I reached chapter 6 and 7 it was all over!There was not enough information to help me understand what the book was losing me on, I needed to seek private tutoring at this point. Occasionally I still go to the book in the hopes that it can pick me up and get me through the homework but it does not. These later chapters may be too complicated to go into in a study guide but what would a study guide be for if not walking you through the steps? I am glad I bought it, just dissappointed that it quit so early.
Fantastic Statistics Resource.......2005-09-22
This is the very best statistics book that I have purchased (and I have purchased 5 others trying to help me get a grasp on this subject)! I would recommend it to anyone who needs an easy--to-read and easy-to-understand textbook on this difficult subject! I hope it helps you as much as it has helped me!
Wow! Clear, Concise, Excellent Book.......2005-05-19
Having seriously struggled for the last two years with the statistics side of my Psychology studies, this book has really made things so much clearer. An excellent book for anyone struggling to grasp the basic statistical concepts required in behavioral sciences.
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