Amazon.com
Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.
Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson
Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.
Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.
Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.
The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.
Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."
In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson
Book Description
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.”
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book–itself a black swan.
Customer Reviews:
interesting.......2007-10-17
I like the fact that he presents things differently, even though he seems a little bit to "conscious" and proud of this... :)
Good book generally.
The Black Swan and What's Wrong with Nassim Taleb's Viewpoint.......2007-10-17
I'm 94 percent through reading Nassim Taleb's remarkable book about random events having higher than expected occurrence throughout history. I'm an unusual reader however in that many of the people he's met, read about and formed friendships with, I've also had the opportunity to meet, read about or write to. Being the "loner" that I am however, unlike Mr. Taleb, I didn't form friendships with these guys. Didier Sornette and Benoit Mandlebrot are two of his hero's if I can use poetic license, whose works I've followed throughout the years and as an applied scientist working first in the aerospace and auto industry, and now in finance, have had a chance to apply their work and ideas to real world problems. However, I've also been a student of Newton, Kelvin and Einstein all of whom would and did make room for the "Gaussian" curve that Mr. Taleb has disgust for. I would also fall into one of Mr. Taleb's cohorts with whom he has high disdain, since I also was educated in physics and mathematics in the usual academic curriculum. This being the case, I feel I have some credibility to offer a secondary review of his work having used the tools of "Extremistan" as he calls it.
To begin, there are many statements in his book that I agree with. The Nobel self-congratulatory awards, the assertion of many academics to request a mathematical proof of his "theory", the view that mathematics exists only in the mind for nature offers neither a true square, diamond, or triangle, the lack of an explanation for the observation of highly probable events and his continued persistence that an explanation isn't necessary are just an example of his high intellect that in the "real world" we all come to appreciate and assume some brotherhood with this smart-alec of a man. However, there is clearly a mischievousness in his demeanor that snickers at anybody who disagrees with him that is uncalled for. This appears as high arrogance that rightly his mother ascertained from his character when she said to him, "if you can get people to pay you what you think you're worth, instead of what you're really worth, then you've got something".
Let me make a thoughtful empirical criticism which underpins Mr. Taleb's ranting and raving in the book. Mr. Taleb says on page 281 of the Black Swan, "you need one simple deviation to reject the Gaussian, but millions of observations will not fully confirm the validity of its application. Why? Because the Gaussian bell curve disallows large deviations, but tools of Extremistan, the alternative, do not disallow long quiet stretches". His overall argument fails on this one simple account: there are more than one cause in effect for almost all known observations of any phenomena in the universe. What's typically done in physics is to attempt to understand the strongest influencers of an outcome, not ALL of the influencers of an outcome. He fails to understand that it's not one distribution or one cause in effect, but always multiple causes occuring. Extreme events have a different mechanism that triggers cascades while every-day events, those occurring that aren't extreme have a separate cause. One only enters into the conundrum of explanation when you try and link all observations, both from his world of Extremistan and Mediocracistan together into one cause. This is never the case in any phenomena I've ever dealt with or heard about, from weather forecasting, fluid dynamics, heat transfer, chemical kinetics, or the financial markets. There are competing effects going on, not just one. Some trigger daily and can be observed regularly, some trigger every 100 years or more.
Take for example his principal teacher of Black Swans, the financial markets. Okay, so thirsty bubbles, credit crunches, LTCM, October 1987, August 2007 occurred and weren't explained by the "Gaussian" model. Well, for ease of explanation, say there were two underlying distributions with two completely different mechanisms involved. One cause of market movements say, results in a distribution of returns modeled like a Gaussian and the other cause, is best explained by some distribution that has extreme tails, infinite variance and allows for discontinuous jumps. I have yet to meet a physicist or mathematician who wouldn't agree with this and it satisfies Mr. Taleb's points exactly. What he fails to comprehend I believe, is that multiple causes are in effect simultaneously in any problem I've ever encountered, each resulting in its own distribution of outcomes. What's not separable and creating havoc in explanation, are the multiple causes that create the underlying distributions and/or which cause has what distribution?
As a practicing computational and modeling scientist since 1987, I see Mr. Taleb's book as delightfully playful, but certainly amateurish. His understanding of science is quite ignorant really. I was amazed at the name dropping, though he continually disavows making a habit of it. And why Mr. Taleb can't see to find anybody but Herr Dr. Professor Mandlebrot to agree with him is beyond me? Perhaps the physicists he did find who agreed with him, weren't quite as famous as they needed to be, to be quoted in his book. Lastly, being a student of history that Mr. Taleb purports to be, I was amazed he didn't dig up these two quotations, one from the supreme empiricist Isacc Newton and the second from the best theorist I know, Albert Einstein:
Thus far I have explained the phenomena of the heavens and of our sea by the force of gravity, but I have not yet assigned a cause to gravity. I have not as yet been able to deduce from phenomena the reason for these properties of gravity. For whatever is not deduced from the phenomena must be called a hypothesis; and hypotheses whether metaphysical or physical, or based on occult qualities or mechanical, have no place in experimental philosophy.
I. Newton
Newton forgive me; you found the only way which in your age was just about possible for a person with the highest powers of thought and creativity. The concepts which you created are guiding our thinking in physics even today, although we now know that they will have to be replaced by others farther removed from the sphere of immediate experience, for we know that science cannot grow out of empiricism alone.
A. Einstein
I would say that one can't predict extreme events so one doesn't model them generally. It's not a failure of "modelers" as Mr. Taleb suggests, but of tackling simpler problems first. We didn't throw Newton out when his laws failed to account for relativistic velocity; we shouldn't throw Markowitz, Merton, Sharpe, Black and Scholes out either for their early contributions. Sure, they'll be overtaken by Rachev and the Levy-Stable distribution function but in 1968, who could compute a numerical basis function on a piece of paper since computers were hardly around! The Gaussian was used simply because you could compute it; it had a closed form analytical equation.
Bell curve Intellectual fraud.......2007-10-16
Didier says, "A crash occurs when order wins. In stable markets buyers and sellers balance out each other, normal times are when disorder wins. When the imitation strength K gets close to a special critical value Kc, a very large group of investors share the same opinion, a may act in a coordinated way, an abrupt drop in price, infinite slope K/Kc, a crash occurs. "New demographic, technological, or economic developments prompt spontaneous innovation in financial markets and the first wave of investors and innovators become wealthy. Then imitators arrive and overdo the new techniques. In the ensuing crises, latecomers lose big before regulators and academics put out fires."
Taleb says that the human suffers from three ailments: 1. the illusion of understanding, orhow everyone thinks he know what is going on in a world that is more complicated or random than they realize. 2. the retrospective distortion, or how we can assess matters only after the fact, as if they were in a rearview mirror (history seems clearer and more organized in history books than in empirical reality). 3. the overvaluation of factual information and the handicap of authoritative and learned people, particularly when they create categories-when they platonify" Taleb hedges with puts in calls that are designed to make money when a black swan occurs and that is all that matters.
Properities of Extremistan: Scalable; Wild randomness; the member is either a giant or a dwarf - strong inequalities in the extreme; winner take almost all effects; vulnerable to the Black Swan; total will be determined by a small number of events; hard to predict from past information; history makes jumps; and the distribution is either Mandelbrotian gray Swans or totally intractable black Swans.
"Gaussian-bell curve variations face a headwind that makes probabilities drop at a faster and faster rate as you move away from the mean, while scalables or mandelbrotian variations, do not have such a restriction." Didier demonstrated using a log periodicity equation that sudden changes could occur and that stock market crashes followed a curve. I observed that Didier used fractuals and mandelbrots, in his book.
Gaussian bell curve did not provide an accurate prediction of reality for the German dutschmark when in the 1920, four trillion were exchanged for one dollar. "An outcome that tells you that the bell curve is meaningless as a description of the randomness in currency fluctuations. All you need to reject the bell curve is for such a movement to occur once - just consider the consequences." The bell curve is used as a risk-measurement tool by regulators and central bankers. The point of Gaussian bell curve is that most observations hover around the mediocre, the average. A gaussian bell curve of men reaching 9 feet 1 inch is one in one with 100 zeros behind it. So if you see a nine foot Chinese, according to the bell curve that is impossible and yet the possibility does exist. Suppose an increasing number of 8 foot Chinese emerge and suddenly a nine foot Chinese exist then pay attention to the black swan. The black swan is impossible according to the bell curve but its random existence should cause one to pay attention.
Outsourcing has not caused America to bankrupt. Wealth is scalable because workers have shifted into a post-industrial society were ideas are valuable. For example, software is scalable, costing almost nothing to produce but capable of generating massive amounts of wealth. "The inequality among the superrich is the same as the inequality among the simply rich-it does not slow down" "For any large total, the breakdown will be more and more asymmetric". Work is unfair. One programmer may be capable of producing more power designs and code than twenty of his peers. "The 80/20 rule is metaphorical; it is not a rule, even less a rigid law." In some situations you may have a concentration of the 80/20 type and you can identify beforehand where the 20 percent are. Why is the bell curve so popular? The Bell Curve allows for certainties to exist and confidence to increase; the bell curve disregards the possibility of sharp jumps or discontinuities and are inapplicable to extremistan; large unpredictable deviations are rare, but can not be dismissed; the Gaussian way is to focus on the ordinary; if there is gravity pulling numbers down that we have the gaussian approach, but if we have a singularity emerges than a rarity of enormous magnitude has occurred, a black swan, an anti-gravity field canceling out gravity, a inward spiral of energy, to a single point; the mediocristan type of randomness does not allow for some extremes; the consequence of variation (errors) around the average of gaussian are not truly worrisome. Fuzzy Logic is better than probability. Fuzzy logical explains the chance that a possibility will occur. Probability predicts whether something will exist and may exclude things that rarely exist. It gets worse, standard deviations outside the gaussian do not matter and gaussian are the only class of distributions that standard deviation describe.
What causes catastrophes? "Statistics is not a science, it is a fraud." Divergence form the mean was considered an error. Marx picked up on this and promoted the idea of average man. "The notion of the average man is steeped in the culture attending the birth o the European middle class, the nascent post-Napoleonic shopkeeper's culture, chary of excessive wealth and intellectual brilliance." The outcome is a society without any deviate outcomes. Nervousness caused from disbelief causes catastrophes.
The World of Unknown Unknowns.......2007-10-15
NNT's use of a "narrative" strategy based on a questionable premise (did the sighting of the first black swan in Australia really impact the world?) to attract readers has paid dividends and his book has attained Grey Swan status among Amazon's Business & Investing bestsellers. The author, as he admits, has clearly enjoyed the writing experience which, besides dealing with the Impact of the Highly Improbable, has enabled him to sideswipe individuals and groups he sees mired in a world of Gaussian illusion.
On reading the book for the second time I kept asking myself "is this new to me?" and, if it is, "what is its relevance to me?". On reviewing one's own life to date, as the author recommends, it is clear that much of it has indeed been determined by high-impact unforeseeable events. This does not come as a great surprise - but then Taleb says that it never does, in retrospect! This contrasts with the chilling realization that there are almost certainly more such occurrences ahead. It is interesting to read explanations for why humans "don't know they don't know" they live in an extreme world but many, without realizing it, will already be familiar with psychological phenomena such as "platonism", "tunnelling", "confirmation bias" and the "narrative fallacy".
Interestingly, Taleb seems to miss what could well be the main reason why individuals "don't know they don't know": they just don't want to know they don't know they don't know! It seems to be a natural human reaction to put one's head in the sand when faced with the possibility of unforeseeable, high impact, possibly negative, events - particularly when they believe they can do nothing about them.
What, perhaps, is newer and more relevant to many is the fact that the professionals apparently rely on defective tools for analysing their particular piece of reality. Having some knowledge of the financial world and its questionable mathematical models, I can readily believe that many professionals - and even Nobel Prize winners - are led astray by the humble Bell Curve, as Taleb suggests. In fact the reasonably experienced small investor already has little faith in market "experts". On the other hand this same investor does not automatically transfer his scepticism to experts in other important fields, such as the social sciences, economics, environmental studies and military planning, where predictive errors can be far deadlier.
Besides peppering his text with the names and contributions of important thinkers - apparently a deliberate technique to achieve greater credibility - Taleb gives us some fascinating theory in the shape of non-linear relationships, the limitations of the Gaussian distribution, and the ability of so-called "power laws" to turn some Black Swans into Grey Swans. However this review stops a long way from demonstrating that life is largely determined by full-blooded (i.e. totally unpredictable) Black Swans.
Although I don't think that Taleb will make us see our lives in a totally new light it is important that he reminds us - in case 24-hour world news ever allows us to forget - that day-to-day affairs can be subject to unforeseen, and potentially devastating, modification. He also offers us the flip side: some ideas on how we can take advantage of positive Black Swans. It may be due to a lack of imagination but, not being a venture capitalist or a "quant", I couldn't immediately see measures of easy application in this area. Defence against Black Swans seems easier, namely diversification across very disparate fields. Taleb himself suggests a portfolio composed of up to 90% of extremely safe financial instruments (like Treasury bills) and as little as 10% in leveraged speculative bets like options (ideally involving "venture-capital style portfolios"). His general advise is more homely: learn to recognise undertakings exposed to positive and negative Black Swans, don't be narrow minded, seize opportunities, be wary of government plans, etc.
Many interested in the impact of randomness will find the book a good, if fairly demanding, read. In the end, however, it is not entirely satisfactory. This has something to do with the fact that rather than be carried long by a limpid river of reasoning we are subjected to an avalanche of opinionative observations, some relevant, some less so. Some readers might also find many of the chapter and section headings irritating: "The Vagueness of Catherine's Lover Count", "How many Wittgenstein's can dance on the head of a pin?", etc. I suppose its all part of the relatively successful effort to make randomness fun. But although we'd enjoy seeing pompous academics and self-satisfied hedge-fund partners squirming with mice down their necks is it really necessary to rub the long-suffering French up the wrong way?
Interesting, but long-winded.......2007-10-15
Interesting perspective. Shows how unpredictable large-impact events shape life and why we must watch out for these. But you need patience to go thro the 300+ pages. Taleb spends more pages on what Black Swans are and their impact, less on what one can do to lessen their impact. Would love to hear more on what he recommends, though I will take them with a 'handful' of salt....I am as skeptical of experts as he is
Amazon.com
As little children we know how to live in the moment and be completely authentic. But then something damaging happens to us, according to author Don Miguel Ruiz: we are given "knowledge" about how to live in the world. Parents tell us how to behave in order to be a "good" boy or girl. Teachers tell us what it takes to be a "winner" or a "successful" adult. This collective "voice of knowledge" is not only false--it is often poisonous, explains Ruiz, bestselling author of The Four Agreements. It makes us believe that "I am not the way I should be; it is not okay to be me." Drawing upon the story of Adam and Eve, Ruiz refers to the forbidden tree of knowledge and likens the abandonment of the true self to the fall from heaven. What Ruiz calls "the voice of knowledge" others spiritual teachers might call ego--the hidden and carefully defended belief system that prevents us from living and expressing who we really are. "The structure of our knowledge makes us feel safe….When we discover that we are not what we believe we are, the foundation of our entire reality begins to collapse." In the Toltec tradition, Ruiz says every human is an artist, "and the supreme art is the expression of the beauty of our spirit." He explains that there are two kinds of artists: "the ones who create their story without awareness, and the ones who recover awareness and create their story with truth and love." The recovering of awareness is what this fourth book in the Toltec Wisdom series is all about. This makes for a good bedside spiritual growth book. Each chapter closes with "Points to Ponder"--summary thoughts to sleep upon as you create the more authentic story of your life. --Gail Hudson
Book Description
The Voice of Knowledge is the fourth book in the Toltec Wisdom series by the best-selling author of The Four Agreements. Don Miguel Ruiz explores the concept of "impeccability of the word" as a simple yet potent prescription for countering the judgmental inner "voice of knowledge." Adhering to "the word" - saying only what you mean, refusing to speak against you - allows anyone to transform those inner tyrannical thoughts into a voice of self-trust and integrity. Knowledge then becomes an ally, and life becomes an expression of the authentic self.
Customer Reviews:
bt2.......2007-06-13
This CD is amazing. I find myself listening to it on my way to and from work every day since I've received it. It is very soothing to listen to the narrator's voice and the recording is high quality. The content of Don Miguel's work is changing the way I think. It is increasing my awareness of myself and my surroundings and allowing me to make day to day decisions and interactions from a higher level of consciousness. This already is a treasured part of my spiritual growth and evolution process.
Nothing life changing.......2007-05-07
Cheesy at it's best times. This book of enlightenment taught me no more than could be found on a fortune cookie or Dear Abby column. Not worth the time it took- which was not much as it's a short, easy read- it takes more time as you stop and say "Seriously? Seriuosly."
Take off your masks!.......2007-03-17
Interesting point of view on living authentic life. Don Miguel Ruiz is an intelligent, savvy person. Each chapter is summed up by the main points. This is a guide for life, and I hope to start using my notes on it soon.
Awesome.......2007-03-15
Another blockbuster by Don Miguel Ruiz. A little slow in the middle I thought, but the last two chapters blew me away!
Simple words, simple wisdom.......2007-03-09
As with his other works, Don Miguel Ruiz once again challenges us to take a new look at the stories and beliefs we hold in order to reach a higher level of self-realization and communion with our creator. Ruiz' works are consistent with some of the best in human psychology, and are easily absorbed into the religious and world-view perspectives the reader may hold. Rather than challenging our relationships with God, Ruiz calls us to a closer and more intimate relationship by setting aside the false beliefs we have inherited through the years. I am sure this work may garner wringing of hands by some in the extremist movements; however, at its core, Ruiz embraces the highest and the best of world religions and calls us to make them our own.
Average customer rating:
- A treasure
- In True Ayn Rand Fashion
- A New Moral Philosophy
- A natural code of ethics
- Classic Material
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The Virtue of Selfishness
Ayn Rand
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Customer Reviews:
A treasure.......2007-09-14
I have an emotional connection to this book, and by consequence to Rand, because it is Rand's work that motivated me into becoming a full-fledged libertarian. Rand, in it, offers a wonderful collection of essays, and in particular a theory of individual rights rooted in Aristotlean ethics. Were more people to read this chef d'oeuvre by Ms Rand, they would rid themselves of any ignorance on what she actually advocated (too many "critics" of Objectivism haven't the faintest idea.) Ms Rand was, in my opinion, too averse to reading and understanding her intellectual opponents and did not succeed in fully developing her system of philosophy, but she nonetheless provided the groundworks for future Objectivists (e.g. David Kelley) to build on. For anyone seriously interested in Ayn Rand and Objectivism, this is where to start.
In True Ayn Rand Fashion.......2007-06-23
As with all her writing, she's very aggressive in trying to get her point across. Though this was a good read, I would not say that it was profound, as some of the other reviewers have so asserted.
It would serve as a good stepping stone into the field of more contemporary ethics, but in order to really assess her claims and axioms, one must be well learned and read in the enormous literature of classical and contemporary ethical theory--something I am not.
I didn't give this a 5 star review because quite frankly I disagreed with her on various points, points where it seems that her reasonings had committed some form of fallacy or other.
A New Moral Philosophy.......2007-03-20
Ayn Rand's " The Virtue of Selfishness" is truly a new moral philosophy. Her essays in this book are profound. In this volume, Rand rejects the idea of self sacrifice and metaphysics and embraces rational self interest. Rational self interest is the philosophy that your life belongs to YOU, it does not belong to anyone else. YOU are responsible for your life, feelings and actions. Rand lays out the argument that self sacrifice, and altruism, have denigrated man's sense of self and caused mankind innumerable centuries of suffering. Man was only liberated by the Western Enlightenment and the use of his reason through science and capitalist economics. Where the Dark Ages end, progress and freedom begin.
Rand is an unabashed fan of America and our Founding Fathers. She is absolutely correct in affirming the fact that they founded the American Republic on the Enlightenment ideas of liberty, freethought,individual rights, amd scientific progress. Rand obliterates the view of the Religious Right that American was founded as a "Christian Nation" and the view of the Left that America was founded as a "conservative" nation. She points out that the Declaration of Independence was a radical document affirming the rights of all men as individuals. As a consequence of the American Revolution, capitalism unleashed nearly a century of classical liberalism, freedom from government, and individualism never before seen in any nation or age. Rand shows that the American Republic was the first nation to ever proclaim man as a rational being with inherent and unalienable rights.
The basic thrust that Rand is attempting to get across to the reader is that altruism and the concept of living for others is not only immoral, but fatal to the maintenance of an enlightened republic. Altruism is the root of all the other "isms" that afflict the world. Communism, Fascism, conservatism, liberalism, socialism, all promote the idea of the tribe where the individual is submerged and drowned out by voices degrading him with notions of original sin, "common good","public welfare", mankind's "depravity", and obligation to others. If you want a philosophy of life, liberty and one to truly pursue your happiness with, Ms. Rand's "Virtue of Selfishness" will help guide the way.
A natural code of ethics.......2007-02-23
THE VIRTUE OF SELFISHNESS is required reading for anyone to intelligently discuss Rand as a thinker. Objectivism, like mathematics, has a well-defined hierarchy and VOS is a precondition for understanding its politics and aesthetics. I think, however, that the reader will also find it has practical value. One of Rand's achievements in this work is the creation of a code of ethics based on reason. She does this by placing ethics in the appropriate context by answering questions like what a code of ethics is and why it's necessary. She identifies cardinal values and virtues and applies her code to analyze a number of important ethical issues (e.g., racism). Rand also devotes much effort to comparing her code with altruism (its antipode) and discusses the harm the latter unleashes. She rejects the choice between being an altruist and a brute as a false dichotomy and introduces the concept of the trader, the individual who interacts with others on a value-for-value basis. Rand lays out a compelling case that morality without religion is both possible and desirable.
Classic Material.......2007-02-01
I will never understand why Ayn Rand has always been snubbed by other philosophers. Most philosophers, if asked, will flat out deny that Rand was even a real philosopher. To me this is absurd. She has been called a hypocrite and even a cult leader, but such base ad hominem attacks of course have no bearing on the veracity of her claims. The Virtue of Selfishness is, in my opinion, the best of her publications. The title essay contains one of the most eye-openning and profound arguments I have ever read, which is this: Many people want to believe in immortality. In fact, most Americans DO believe that they are immortal, that death is really just a metamorphasis, that you carry on in another form, etc. If this were actually true, then morality would be of little importance. If we really did live forever then little to nothing could count for or against us. If nothing could count against us then we would have no values. If we had no values we would have no goals. And if we had no values or goals, morality would be irrelevant. Think about it. It's the very fact that life is FINITE that gives it meaning. This is an important lesson--that the immortality that so many hope and pray for would actually be a curse, just as it is to mythical vampires. Also profound are the discussions on selfishness. Selfishness is not a bad thing. Everyone does everything he or she does for selfish reasons. Even if someone appears to be behaving altruistically it is only because doing so makes him feel good about himself. On a sidenote, Nathaniel Branden also has an excellent essay in which he explains typical "party" behavior. We might look at people who love to party and think "Gee, they are such carefree individuals. They must love life and love having fun." Actually, Branden makes clear, they are miserable. They only act that way because of their emptiness as people. They are trying to distract themselves from their deep unhappiness. They try to drown out their lack of self-contentment with alcohol or other drugs, and with loud music and rooms full of loud obnoxious people. It's all a grand self-medicating distraction from the underlying problems at hand, and afterward, when the party is over and they are left alone with their own thoughts again, they are miserable. All of it, the alcohol, drugs, partying, rooms full of dancing and whatnot, is not the creation of happiness, but is merely the orchestrated cessation of unhappiness.
Book Description
This long awaited successor of the original Cook/Campbell Quasi-Experimentation: Design and Analysis Issues for Field Settings represents updates in the field over the last two decades. The book covers four major topics in field experimentation:
- Theoretical matters: Experimentation, causation, and validity;
- Quasi-experimental design: Regression discontinuity designs, interrupted time series designs, quasi-experimental designs that use both pretests and control groups, and other designs.
- Randomized experiments: Logic and design issues, and practical problems involving ethics, recruitment, assignment, treatment implementation, and attrition.
- Generalized causal inference: A grounded theory of generalized causal inference, along with methods for implementing that theory in single and multiple studies.
- The final chapter critically reflects on the assumptions and key issues covered in the previous four sections.
The emphasis on the generalized causal inferences is a significant extension of the work done in previous volumes; and the addition of theoretical and practical chapters on randomized experiments will be of great use to researchers who use randomization in their research practice. At the same time, this book retains and expands the emphasis on quasi-experimentation that was the hallmark of Cook and Campbell; and it retains Campbell's classic theoretical and conceptual approach to experimentation that has been so successful over the last 35 years.
Customer Reviews:
Experimental and Quasi Experimental Designs.......2007-09-21
The book arrived in good shape and withing promised time. However when I order books from other sellers they are shipped rightaway and if they have not been shipped it is easy to cancel the order. With Amazon when I tried to cancel the order it said that the order has been processed but it was shipped a week after that. I guess that is the price one has to pay for free shipping.
Great book.......2007-05-27
This is a great book for those who are willing to discover or improve their knowledge about experimental and quasi-experimental designs - it is an essential book, I'd say. It also helps a lot to understand research and science in general. Really helped me in my dissertation.
Excellent for doctoral students.......2007-02-07
I am a doctoral student in public health and recommend this book to my fellow doctoral students out there. It is a thorough and comprehensive text on research methods. I have gone through quite a few texts with similar titles and this stands out as the best.
Very frustrating.......2006-09-30
I am a first year Ph.D. student, and I find this book quite frustrating to read. The reading drags on and on, and I can't really remember what I read. The examples in the book are somewhat helpful, but they do not seem to fully explain the concepts very well. I hope the next edition will have a more comprehensive explanations for the concepts in the book.
Very informative..............2006-04-01
but very boring too! Actually, that's not completely true, it's just the first few chapters that are excruciatingly boring, but once you get past all the introductory material, it's quite informative. I'm reading this right now for my graduate course in experimental design, so I most likely found the first few chapters as boring as I did because I already knew the stuff. Although some pictures would be nice, and I'm talking about more than just the illustrations that they use to...uh... "illustrate" different experimental designs, it's nice that there's not a bunch of fluff to sort through looking for the information that is actually important. It's a well written and pretty easy to comprehend must have for those of in the wacky world of experimental studies.
Book Description
With a new preface by the author, this reissue of Thomas Sowell's classic study of decision making updates his seminal work in the context of The Vision of the Anointed. Sowell, one of America's most celebrated public intellectuals, describes in concrete detail how knowledge is shared and disseminated throughout modern society. He warns that society suffers from an ever-widening gap between firsthand knowledge and decision making -- a gap that threatens our very freedom because actual knowledge gets replaced by assumptions based on an abstract and elitist social vision of what ought to be.
Knowledge and Decisions, a winner of the 1980 Law and Economics Center Prize, was heralded as a "landmark work" and selected for this prize "because of its cogent contribution to our understanding of the differences between the market process and the process of government." In announcing the award, the center acclaimed Sowell, whose "contribution to our understanding of the process of regulation alone would make the book important, but in reemphasizing the diversity and efficiency that the market makes possible, [his] work goes deeper and becomes even more significant." "In a wholly original manner [Sowell] succeeds in translating abstract and theoretical argument into a highly concrete and realistic discussion of the central problems of contemporary economic policy." --F. A. Hayek "This is a brilliant book. Sowell illuminates how every society operates. In the process he also shows how the performance of our own society can be improved." --Milton Friedman
Customer Reviews:
Pseudo-academic polemics.......2007-09-30
I can't fault a book for having an opinion. I can fault it for disguising a dogmatic political agenda as serious intellectual analysis. Some people may be deceived because the tone is so boring, they may think the discussion is dry, dispassionate and sincere. The major premise of the book, that knowledge has a cost, is uncontroversial. Sowell then elaborates his opinions, but the connection to the theme is frequently tenuous and seldom considers counterarguments (unless Sowell has a counter-counterargument neatly prepared.)
He does have a justification for every viewpoint, but many arguments are weak. On the whole, it reads as a compilation of his opinions, supporting the Republicans at every turn, without regard to his supposed premises.
If you're interested in an 800 page debate handbook rambling over every subject, (say you're Rush Limbaugh or are running for Congress), this book provides intelligent-sounding arguments. To anybody else, it shows the value of paid ideologues to trick the masses into thinking that the elite know something. They don't want you to slog through this intimidatingly tedious book, just to believe in it. There's no need.
Impressed by honest conservatism.......2006-07-14
In this day of spurious conservatives seeking political power by any means, Sowell's conservatism deserves attention. If you are ready to be challenged, read it!
Anointed.......2004-08-01
Dr. Sowell offers a very readable argument for the proposition that people should make political choices on the basis of what is actually good for them, and not on the basis of what their self-appointed "betters" think that they ought to want. Required reading for anyone whose political feet are not already set in concrete. Love it or hate it, it will force you to think. (Your brain is more important than your abs.)
This book is excellent, but must be read VERY carefully........2002-01-22
I have read about 12 of Thomas Sowell's books now, give or take. They do tend to be over-wrought with detail, but in this case it may be that he really did need as many pages as he used to say what he did and could have used more by filling in specific examples.
Kudos to Sowell for using the very accurate idea of *social behavior* as a basis for explaining intergroup difference (rather than something so tenuous as IQ), and the separation of the actions of specific agencies from "society." Most writers do not bother to clearly delimit their operational terms and working notions. Also particularly clever was his observation of how institutions work as a matter of *self-interest* and create problems because it is in their best interest to have these problems.
The book must be read LINE by LINE. When he uses some of his very abstract statements to characterize a social process it is often NOT filled in with details. A theme that appears in many of his books is: "If it has happened once, it will happen again independent of settings." While you go through and read some of his statments, you will have to think back through your experiences of life and see if you have seen the same situation. And THAT is what makes this book take such a long time to read--expect it to take a month if read properly.
The index is excellent and I found it particularly useful for referencing subjects like black IQ research and things like that. Well researched if nothing else, and it goes a LONG way in explaining current situations by extrapolations of things in the book itself.
Perhaps it could have been made just a bit easier to read. Again: this is NOT light reading, and while it is chock full of information, it is WAY over the heads of most people.
This book is *required reading* for young black Americans. If paid careful attention to, it will do great things to break some of the bad habits that have infected us for a long time now. Really, it is a good book for any people who are looking for concrete reasons for group differences. And maybe in the case of the readers who would be the greatest beneficiaries of it (black Americans, from my view), it would undo some of the damage caused to young Blacks by Black Studies departments across the nations.
Feel free to email me with any questions/ comments.
Knowledge can be costly..........2001-06-19
This is indeed one of Sowell's tomes. Knowledge costs are different for different people. Some knowledge is extremely costly to acquire in both time and money. Articulation may not be an expression of knowledge, but a talent for using words; however, some incorrectly think that if someone has good articulation, then he must know what he is speaking of.
Sometimes the most important decision to be made is WHO is to make a decision. The further away from the knowledge on which the decision must be based the "decider" is, the less informaiton he has and he is more likely to make an incorrect decision. This explains the folly of most regulation: generally speaking, regulators cannot know what it is they are regulating. Shocking as this might be, but it takes sometimes years - maybe decades - for one person to gain knowledge in some areas of patient treatment, but yet people in the FDA regulate the medical industry anyway with the total impossibility of them ever knowing even a fraction of a percentage of what they are regulating! Of course, this is not unique to the medical field, but applies to all fields - regulators are too far away from the correct KNOWLEDGE to make some types of decisions. This fact of knowledge is inescapable, permanent, and nobody can change it.
Sowell also shows the effects of insurgent movements on social policy and how the movements still exist long after they have outlived their usefulness - beyond their point of diminishing returns. He also shows how the courts really screwed up the judicial system by crusading for social causes instead of interpreting the constitution. In the quest for "solving" problems, many social insurgent groups forget that some problems will never be solved and we just have to live with the necessary trade-offs such situations present to us - some of these groups forget that their "solutions" create other problems that they did not forsee. They forgot that life's problems is weighing trade-offs and some "solutions" replace one problem with another.
The theme, for the most part, is coming to terms with a fact of life: we must decide what trade-offs we want to live with. We cannot perfectly manage all of the information out there, and some of the information is too costly to get for some people. We must balance what we know against the chances of what we do not know. Much is left to chance and that is life.
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On Chinese Body Thinking: A Cultural Hermeneutic (Philosophy of History and Culture)
Kuang-Ming Wu
Manufacturer: Brill Academic Publishers
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Book Description
This book uses Western philosophical tradition to make a case for a form of thinking properly associated with ancient China. The book's thesis is that Chinese thinking is concrete rather than formal and abstract, and this is gathered in a variety of ways under the symbol "body thinking". The root of the metaphor is that the human body has a kind of intelligence in its most basic functions. When hungry the body gets food and eats, when tired it sleeps, when amused it laughs. In free people these things happen instinctively but not automatically. The metaphor of body thinking is extended far beyond bodily functions in the ordinary sense to personal and communal life, to social functions and to cultivation of the arts of civilization. As the metaphor is extended, the way to stay concrete in thinking with subtlety becomes a kind of ironic play, a natural adeptness at saying things with silences. Play and indirection are the roads around formalism and abstraction. Western formal thinking, it is argued, can be sharpened by Chinese body thinking to exhibit spontaneity and to produce healthy human thought in a community of cultural variety.
Book Description
Having outlined a theory of bullshit and falsehood, Harry G. Frankfurt turns to what lies beyond them: the truth, a concept not as obvious as some might expect.
Our culture's devotion to bullshit may seem much stronger than our apparently halfhearted attachment to truth. Some people (professional thinkers) won't even acknowledge "true" and "false" as meaningful categories, and even those who claim to love truth cause the rest of us to wonder whether they, too, aren't simply full of it. Practically speaking, many of us deploy the truth only when absolutely necessary, often finding alternatives to be more saleable, and yet somehow civilization seems to be muddling along. But where are we headed? Is our fast and easy way with the facts actually crippling us? Or is it "all good"? Really, what's the use of truth, anyway?
With the same leavening wit and commonsense wisdom that animates his pathbreaking work On Bullshit, Frankfurt encourages us to take another look at the truth: there may be something there that is perhaps too plain to notice but for which we have a mostly unacknowledged yet deep-seated passion. His book will have sentient beings across America asking, "The truth—why didn't I think of that?"
Customer Reviews:
Desperately (and deliberately?) dull.......2007-09-22
This was assigned reading for my dissertation seminar. It's a tiny book. Nonetheless, I only made it through 31 pages before I couldn't take it anymore. This is some seriously dull writing - the kind that makes you want to pull your hair out and scream. I cannot imagine having to sit through a course taught by this author! About 10 minutes ago, I officially decided that I am not going to finish this book and I am actually looking forward to reading my statistics textbook. I'm not kidding. That's how boring this book is.
Eh.......2007-07-18
I was pretty pumped for this, but found it unnecessarily difficult to get through, and couldn't really enjoy the reading experience. I know philosophy isn't supposed to be easy, but I felt like Frankfurt's writing took the fun out of critical thinking which I usually love. I'm sure philosophy majors and others with lots of experience with these kinds of texts would appreciate it more, but for those, like me, who are just trying to get our hands on interesting and thought provoking reading materials, look elsewhere.
Dull but Relevant and Helpful.......2007-06-13
I listened to the audiobook version of On Truth and was not captivated by the writing. I found it dry and not very stimulating. There are few illustrations, anecdotes or stories. The writing about truth is to the point and both philosophical and practical.
Frankfurt emphasizes the harm and effects that lies have on the liar and the victim. He also emphasizes the importance of truth to society, culture and the workplace.
This is a short book, so it is not much of an investment of time or energy and does serve to underscore the evidence and significance of truth.
Pithy and Insightful.......2007-05-31
This book simply gets right to the point. Our society, which values the useful so much, needs to look as well at the underlying affirmation of the true which follows from these values. This succinct little treatise makes the reasons for this lucid. The author maintains a pleasant balance of accessibility and depth throughout. An inexpensive addition that belongs on both the working and thinking man's bookshelf.
Better than "On Bull****", but..........2007-03-23
Frankfort's musings on the nature of bull**** (On Bull****) led him - how could they not? - to muse on the nature of truth (On Truth). Frankfort's musings on the nature of truth inspired him - considering the "surprise run-away success" of On Bull****, how could they not? - to pen a companion volume, one that is a bit fatter than its predecessor and only a trifle more interesting. The result: a decent first foray - for would-be first-forayers - into some topics that have worried generations of ethically- and metaphysically-minded thinkers. For old-hand worriers of this sort, however, OT offers little to instruct or inspire. To the extent that OT, like OB, is pitched (the former, less cynically) to a popular readership, Frankfurt's effort to (p)reach outside the academy merits credit. Little else about OT (or OB) does.
Book Description
From Copernicus to Darwin, to current-day thinkers, scientists have always promoted theories and unveiled discoveries that challenge everything society holds dear; ideas with both positive and dire consequences. Many thoughts that resonate today are dangerous not because they are assumed to be false, but because they might turn out to be true.
What do the world's leading scientists and thinkers consider to be their most dangerous idea? Through the leading online forum Edge (www.edge.org), the call went out, and this compelling and easily digestible volume collects the answers. From using medication to permanently alter our personalities to contemplating a universe in which we are utterly alone, to the idea that the universe might be fundamentally inexplicable, What Is Your Dangerous Idea? takes an unflinching look at the daring, breathtaking, sometimes terrifying thoughts that could forever alter our world and the way we live in it.
Customer Reviews:
From the brilliant and interesting to the trite and idiotic .......2007-09-17
This yearly gathering of the superbrights has John Brockman asking a question raised by Steven Pinker,"What is your most dangerous idea?" Brockman seems to feel that the answers when taken together point to a wholly new understanding of what everything is all about. Here is his prefatory hype to the volume:
"Something radically new is in the air: new ways of understanding physical systems, new ways of thinking about thinking that call into question many of our basic assumptions. A realistic biology of the mind, advances in evolutionary biology, physics, information technology, genetics, neurobiology, psychology, engineering, the chemistry of materials: all are questions of critical importance with respect to what it means to be human. For the first time, we have the tools and the will to undertake the scientific study of human nature."
Brockman suggests the volume contains "a new natural philosophy, founded on the realization of the import of complexity, of evolution. Very complex systems -- whether organisms, brains, the biosphere, or the universe itself -- were not constructed by design; all have evolved. There is a new set of metaphors to describe ourselves, our minds, the universe, and all of the things we know in it."
My own sense is that Brockman is selling the volume a bit strongly. It is true that it is filled with all kinds of fascinating ideas. But it offers nothing like a coherent picture of a new emerging generally accepted understanding of human nature. And this though there are tremendous breakthroughs in genetics and these are fueling what will most likely be revolutionary transformations in the human situation.
Clearly there are a lot of very interesting ideas in this volume. There are too plenty of trite and excuse me for this one , even stupid suggestions. What are we to make of Michael Shermer's simplistic suggestion that when there is an open- border and free trade , in other words a real opportunity for economic connection between peoples there will necessarily emerge peaceful relations between them? Has he been to the Middle East lately? Or of Irene Pepperberg's strange suggestion that when we come down to it in the end the distinctions between humans and the rest of the animal kingdom will be 'only quantitative and not qualitative' in other words that chimps and bonobos will be writing 'Hamlet' and the blue- whales and dolphins sending signals to discover whether there is anyone else out there in the Universe capable of signaling back to us? or Rudy Rucker's idea that really every little plant despite its lack of a nervous system has within it a kind of noetic sense , a kind of mind enfolding through it?
Pinker himself presents what he clearly thinks is an astounding and dangerous idea i.e that there are genetic and temperamental difference between various human collectives which are real. This idea is a 'dangerous one' only for the politically correct, and not for those who have been looking with common sense at the way various groups of people have acted historically and are acting now in the world.
Despite this bit of sour grapes on my part I highly recommend the volume for its richness of ideas, many of which will be, however knowledgeable the reader, new and inspiring.
Dangerous Ideas?.......2007-09-12
Ever wanted to go to a conference and hear 25 of the top people in their fields talk about what's on their minds? This book does exactly that, and saves you all the aggravation of travel and lodging. You might be surprised how hard it is to put this book down--unlike actual conferences, where so many speakers take forever to get around to something really surprising...
Easy read.......2007-07-24
Because this book is a compilation of essays, it is an extremely quick read. Every few pages it jumps to another author's ideas and this is excellent for keeping your attention. The essays themselves are (for the most part) thought provoking and unique.
I'll have to read it again.......2007-07-08
They shied away from dangerous ideas that are inflamatory and antisocial. I was hoping to see some of those.
I liked the idea that there is no such thing as a soul; meaning no such thing as life after death. It was pointed out that 90% of Americans believe in life after death. Now what would happen if 90% of Americans believed that there was no such thing as life after death? For one, no one would join the army to be sacrificed for the government in voluntary foreign wars, be it Iraq or Afganistan; or would join to fight future foreign wars (Cuba? Venezuaela? North Korea? Iran?, et al.).
A Little Gem.......2007-07-05
This book is sort of like a good starting point. These little nugget-ideas are a great place to start a good conversation. Some ideas are far more "dangerous" then others, but it is well worth the read.
Not sure what the editor used for the criteria of ideas, as they are loosely grouped around a few big themes. Some are very funny, a few slightly disturbing, but a good and fun read throughout. Nothing to deeply explored, just enough to spark conversation or an exploration.
If you're a bit of cynic, give it to those of your friends who might be bit close-minded and watch the reaction to some of the ideas. It will make for an entertaining evening.
Customer Reviews:
The map is not the territory.......2007-05-25
During my junior year in college I found an original copy of "Science and Sanity" at a used-book store near Columbia University while traveling around the U.S.. I had learned that William S. Burroughs was highly influenced by it, and, being very intrigued by Burroughs and his cut-up writing method, I decided to read it while on the numerous trains that shuttled me across the country that summer.
For me the book seemed somewhat of a revelation in that Korzybski argued how language itself seems so important in defining one's perception of "reality" when at the same time it represents only a symbolic map of the actual objective(?) territory. An extreme example of this occurs in the computing field known as "automated reasoning", where the axioms of some mathematical theory can be represented as predicate-logic statements, which in turn are used by a computer to derive new true statement about the theory. In this case the territory is an abstract entity that is housed within the minds of a select group of humans, known as "mathematicians", while the map represents a collection of logical statements about the theory that represent "what is known" about it. To confuse the map with the territory in this case would represent ignoring the biological neural connections and brain patterns within the mathematician's mind that not only supports the theory by giving it meaning and relevance, but also relates it to other mathematical and scientific theories. In other words, the mathematical truths that can be discovered about the theory via automated reasoning on a computer is likely to be a subset of what will be discovered and "proved" by a human mathematician.
One of the more basic uses of this concept includes avoiding the "is" of identity. For example, "Johnny is stupid", "I'm a terrible driver", etc..
No, Johnny represents a unique, unspeakable, functional part of the universe in which we live. There may have been some behaviors that we observed in Johnny that disqualified him from being categorized as having a certain form of intelligence, but we should not identify Johnny with a word, especially such a negative and destructive one.
Then there is the idea that a given territory will likely have several different maps associated with it, and that quite often disputes arise because two parties have acquired very different maps of the same territory.
Fortunately these ideas have entered the mainstream of psychology and there seems to be much more thought being given to language and how it affects human minds; especially those of children who are always there to remind us of just how unique and miraculous the territory known as a human being can seem.
I gave the book only four stars because it does seem dated in terms of the level of science that is written about in the text.
May be it has already been done, but I would like to see someone write a follow-up book to this one that revisits Korzybski's ideas within the context of the 21st Century, and doing it with a more clear and concise approach.
One of the best books ever.......2007-04-07
Science and Sanity seems more like a condensation and culmination of a life work than a book. The range of topics and practical details is on par with the greatest achievements of all time such as Einstein's general theory, Euclid's geometry, and Newton's calculus. Science and Sanity presents a completely workable theoretical model personal empowerment and growth through more precise language (general semantics). Clear and intentional use of symbolism is a big theme in the book and I think anyone who is thoughtful and reflective will not only greatly enjoy the read but will benefit tremendously from the brilliance and clarity of the thoughts explored.
Science and Sanity: An Introduction to Non-Aristotelian Systems and General Semantics (International Non-Aristotelian Library)
Science and Sanity.......2007-01-12
The structure of the human brain is language. Every power of the brain from consciousness to memory to imagination to thought, and even the will to act, is immersed in language. We are our language. And if we know several languages, they are prioritized 1, 2, 3, etc., in our brain. Korzybski shows how limiting the Platonic and Aristotelian notions of objectifying one's existence really are. Reason is enormously limiting. And if reason becomes the primary way in which a person is taught to perceive the world, his or her imaginative powers, which almost always begin as irrational impulses, are suppressed to the point of disfunction. The world is nearly bereft of the kinds of ideas which can only come through the imaginative powers, and which now seem so very quiet and still.
Science and Sanity introduces a much wider "logic," a much wider approach to seeing and functioning in the world. The classic Greek dualities, good OR bad, right OR wrong, logical OR illogical, no longer work alongside the growing illogical way in which modern complex societies actually operate. So we find ourselves forced into accepting good AND bad, right AND wrong, logical AND illogical, realities as societies get more and more complex.
I recommend this book to those whose mind is still pliable enough to leap over the debris of Western idealism and Manifest Destiny to a more tolerant, albeit more complex, way of life.
Semantics from the world of 1933.......2006-05-05
An interesting view that is not to be overlooked. As in physics we changed or concepts from Newtonian (space and time) to Einstein or non-Newtonian (space/time). We see this in any fields and some of us embrace the change and see how infinite our views can still work; others of us resist knowing that there is something fundamentally wrong if you can not put your finger on it.
Korzybski opens up our mind and world to the possibilities of Non-Aristotellian systems and general semantics.
"If one wishes to obtain a definite answer to Nature one must attack the question from a more general and less selfish point of view"
M. PLANCK
Unrecognized Genius.......2006-01-23
Korzybski aimed his discussion at professionals, so disregarded definitions (multi-ordinal anyway), etc. Despite this many criticisms resulted, some from professionals, notably Martin Gardner (1993): "...poorly organized, verbose, philosophically naive, repetitious, mish-mash of sound ideas borrowed from abler scientists."
Gardner had sought attention for himself via outing cults, which is not so here. Yet his comments typically betray that, he failed to make non-elementalistic connections (point of 'repetition'), resulting from an Aristotelian 'analysis' (compartmental 'thinking') of a superior, emergent, etc., structure (methodology). Made clear via a useful table comparing the Aristotelian with Non-Aristotelian systems provided by Korzybski (1941) in "Introduction To The Second Edition." While the "ideas borrowed from abler scientists" (apart from an ad hominen argument), misses the point of unifying anomalies. Further the implied not original, is not true, since Korzybski makes connections (Neil Postman's (1992) "unsupportable assertions") not made before (not by other supposed geniuses); though many involved conducted experiments by other scientists, while others can become verifiable, for example as did Albert Einstein's (1905, 1916) Special and General Relativity. Did not Isaac Newton (1642-1727) say, he stood on the shoulders of great men. Further Aristotle's (circa 350 B.C.) treatises often involved a commentary of others' works, for example Aristotle develops from his teacher, Plato's (circa 381 B.C.) universals. Thus innovating perhaps not original, but the basis of Korzybski's (1921) own Time-Binding. Whereas the 5th edition, has a note on errata.
Korzybski's comments were constructive, for example men and women regress to infantilism if they copy animals in their nervous reactions (conditioning).
Paradox: though discoveries involve seeing things afresh, we require systems to organize (from Greek organon), guide, etc., our search! So Korzybski left his system open, avoiding hindering human progress, dogmatism, etc., introducing General Semantics (replacing Aristotle's 'logic') as a basis for critical evaluating: feeling-thinking.
Book Description
A unique, scientific look into why we are all believers.
In Lewis Carroll's Through the Looking-Glass, the White Queen tells Alice that to believe in a wildly improbable fact she simply needs to "draw a long breath and shut [her] eyes." Alice finds this advice ridiculous. But don't almost all of us, at some time or another, engage in magical thinking? Seventy percent of Americans believe in angels; 13 percent of British scientists "touch wood"; 40 percent of Americans believe that astrology is scientific. And that is only the beginning.
In Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast, Lewis Wolpert tackles one of the most important causes on the horizon of public debate: the nature of belief. Looking at belief's psychological basis and its possible evolutionary origins in physical cause and effect, Wolpert expertly investigates what science can tell us about those concepts we are so sure of, covering everything from everyday beliefs that give coherence to our experiences, to religious beliefs, to paranormal beliefs for which there is no evidence.
Customer Reviews:
Short on Evidence.......2007-10-09
Mr. (Dr?) Wolpert admittedly states, with all due candor, that his book has weak evidence (although he inconceivably suggests that this is only "at times"). How an honest scientist (even in the field of embryology, which is remarkably afield from evolutionary psychology) can write a book like this in the face of this fact is baffling.
And it shows.
The largest problem with this book is that the author himself has no idea what his causative explanation is. For example, pg. 67 "... I argue that it was causal thining that was a fundamental adaptation required for making complex tools, and that it was technology that drove human evolution". Despite this argument, he himself reverts to a different position later in the book. For example, pg. 117, "My suggestion is that [belief and religion] had their origin in the evolution of causal beliefs, which in turn had its origins in tool use" and also, pg. 79, "Thus causal thinking preceded and was an essential prerequisite for language development...Language would help enormously with the construction and use of new tools...".
As this should illuminate, the author can't keep his explanation straight. Instead of choosing a theory and then looking for evidence confirming or disconfirming his theory, he simply accepts that it is true, and uses all manner of shady evidence to prop up this ridiculous contradictory theory.
That said, he never does form a complete thought in the entire book, that I could detect at least. There are manifest evidences but none are convincing and many don't support the idea at all. A single sentence, however, can refute the entire thing. When the primitive tools of many societies are compared, there are remarkable similarities. These similarities disperse as the populations themselves, do, which is correlated, in turn, with the evolution of languages.
Hrm... that does tend to destroy his hypothesis. And it isn't a very good one, either.
Pass.
Harkius
The Great Ape that asked "Why?".......2007-10-07
I read this book as the last of a group of books comprising the recent works of Daniel Dennett (whew!)(Breaking the Spell), Richard Dawkins (The God Delusion), Christopher Hitchens (God is not Great), and both of the works by Sam Harris (The End of Faith and Letter to a Christian Nation). For many reasons and particularly because of Wolpert's straightforward theme, I regret I ended rather than started with Wolpert's book in the group. As you are no doubt aware, the theme/proposition of Six Impossible Things Before Breakfast is that the cause-and-effect wiring that showed up in our brains to permit the competitive edge* of complex tool-making is the same wiring that causes our children to ask innumerable questions beginning with "why" too soon after learning to speak syntactically. It is this drive to model our world by causes and effects that competitively distinguishes us as a species. We are an anxious bunch when left with too many unanswered "whys" and turn to stories of causal links or assign temporally correlated events as causally linked in order to reassure ourselves all is well...things have always and will continue to happen for reasons that may be in our control or in the control of one or more benevolent supernatural entities. Just as the scientific method often tests hypotheses that are not immediately dispelled by common sense, these stories of causal links do not necessarily need a foundation in the natural world...they just need to satisfy the cause-effect craving. As you are aware, correlation may indicate but does not necessarily equate with causation and so scientific investigators are left determining, and re-determining, the causal mechanisms, if any, in nature underlying the correlation. Unlike the scientific method, once these stories of casual links take root, we are wired to hold them fast even in the face of independently corroborating facts to the contrary.
*Sorry, I just couldn't help myself from punning.
Combining Wolpert's book with the recent works of the above-cited authors, one takes away a broader theme (see Michael Shermer, Why Darwin Matters) that perhaps we humans got this far by the extra caution taken when seeing patterns where none exist, by immediately projecting intent and anticipated actions onto other beings or objects (irrespective of whether these beings were present or ever existed) and responding to those projections, and by developing both our technologies and our myths due to our insatiable quest for causal links. When contemplating an existence of our conscious self beyond the lifespan of our amazing, yet mortal, brain, we naturally feel a part of something bigger than ourselves. If this something involves or is orchestrated by one or more supernatural entities, we have no way of scientifically knowing.
Wolpert ends his book in a fashion reminiscent of the late Stephen J. Gould (Rock of Ages) where religious beliefs and scientific beliefs are each given their own due respect/space (as you may recall Gould's nonoverlapping magisteria). To the extent scientific beliefs are nearly inaccessible to those without sufficient skills in critical analysis and mathematics and to the extent religious beliefs can take hold in the mind of a child in a day, the populating advantage appears to go to religious beliefs. Unlike Dawkins, Wolpert climbs no soapbox to cry for enhanced critical analysis, mathematics and scientific reasoning in American public schools. He shows little if any distaste for purposeful "scientific" misinformation fed children in home schools or schools supported by literalist religions. Perhaps Wolpert took the matter as far as he felt comfortable in his closing that religious belief systems should not abridge the rights of others.
Nice Concept, Bad Execution.......2007-09-22
Wolpert selected a very interesting topic for this book. And that's all the nice things I have to say about it. He makes a large number of claims that he doesn't bother to support with evidence or explanation. He does not cite his references, although they are listed in the back matter (helpful, but not terribly so, since a particular statement cannot be linked to its source). His paragraphs seem to start and stop willy-nilly and do not provide clear arguments to support his claims. It is unclear which of his claims he intends to support and which he intends to lob toward any ear that will listen.
In short, this book seems like it was written in an ad-hoc, stream-of-consciousness manner. The book does not clearly present its arguments, define important terms like "understand" (this is very important when discussing this topic), or lend itself to detailed study of the subject matter. This book was not yet ripe for the printing, but it was printed nevertheless. Do us all a favor and don't support the publishing of bad books by purchasing them.
A Good Summary of Complex New Evidence.......2007-08-05
Six Impossible Things before Breakfast, by Lewis Wolpert.
This book was very interesting to me as an analysis of human understanding of causation and the importance of our understanding of causation in how we perform other intellectual functions. In particular, we formulate beliefs. One of the characteristics that separates us even from the closest animals is our ability to understand and rationalize cause and effect. Animals, even the great apes, have very limited understanding -- if any -- of causality. We know that from subjecting those animals to experiments in which they would be rewarded for exercising any intellectual capacity that they have.
Human beings have a strong motive to understand causation. Sometimes the intellectual process by which we reach conclusions about causation is described as a "belief engine." There is no doubt that our belief engine is somewhat faulty. Our belief engine "prefers quick decisions, it is bad with numbers, loves representativeness, and sees patterns where often there is only randomness. It is too often influenced by authority, and it has a liking for mysticism." p. 220. We suffer from the "Pollyanna principle," being far more likely to focus on and remember positive rather than negative reports about ourselves. The "Lake Wobegon effect," explains why 94% of college professors believe that they are better than their average colleague at their jobs. The "interviewer illusion" guarantees that we will, as a rule, feel far more confident in our ability to predict the future of others than an objective retrospective analysis would justify. We are overconfident in the correctness of our own judgments. The "Barnum effect" means that we will see merit in vague and generalized descriptions.
We tend to make up stories to explain what we have observed, and the stories often overcome the actual memories. We jump to conclusions on inadequate evidence and then hold to those conclusions with vigor. Placebos work. We are capable of internalizing "forced beliefs," manufactured beliefs forced on us by society or authority. These "forced beliefs" are often manufactured to support other beliefs "that are poorly supported by evidence." Page 88.
We are pathetically bad at evaluating risks, fearing the airplane flight more than the automobile trip to the airport. We have no natural ability to infer what we learn from statistics. We are good at acquiring superstitious beliefs, and terrible at getting rid of them. We are vulnerable to both hypnotic and ordinary suggestion. Studies have shown just how susceptible we are to the implantation of false memories.
We are subject to a strong confirmation bias, which means that once we have formed a belief, we are far more likely to credit new evidence that conforms to those beliefs then evidence that challenges them.
It is difficult to understand the human mind because the instrument with which we must understand it is, of course, the human mind. Studies of animals, babies, children, and people with various kinds of brain damage can give us valuable clues. Carefully designed experiments, with adequate controls, can give us valuable hints. Studies of obviously false beliefs held by people with mental illnesses or under the influence of mind altering drugs can help us understand as well. Even this is difficult because "there are no sharp dividing lines between normal beliefs and delusional beliefs." Page 101. Still, susceptibility to delusions has a strong genetic component, suggesting that our susceptibility is somewhat hardwired into the brain.
We are naturally resistant to scientific evidence because scientific results are frequently counterintuitive. "Almost without exception, any common-sense view of the world is scientifically false." Page 203.
Wolpert proposes that some of the same pathways that developed because of our understanding of causality, particularly tool use, help us to understand our "belief engine." He contends that, "religion and causal beliefs in general had their evolutionary origin in toolmaking, which drove evolution." He admits that the evidence is limited but he could find little or no evidence to contradict this hypothesis. Our belief system is genetically programmed, by which Wolpert means, "that there are circuits in our brain that are set up by the genes that predispose us to have religious and mystical beliefs. It is hard to imagine that the religious and mystical beliefs found in every culture have some other origin." Page 217-18.
This is a short book. It is a good introduction to the science of how the human mind works. I had heard of a lot of the studies discussed in this book before. The author does an excellent job of summarizing the significance of the studies. I enjoy books that explain the cutting edge of science to non-scientists. Wolpert goes into my short list of successful popularizers of complex science.
Fantastic .......2007-06-23
It is quite beautiful how Wolpert sets up the book to explain how some can reject his premise of a non-existent god. The facts contained in this book, and the occasional theory (though well-backed ones), are brilliant and come from a man with an extensive background in the field he writes about, taking special care to write in a way anyone, even an unscientific mind, can understand. It is fantastic how someone can understand, through this book, why they reject certain arguments (specifically that a god is irrational) yet walk away still denying everything, holding on to their old beliefs, knowing exactly how. Though that of course is only a mere portion of the book. Brilliant.
Books:
- The Blind Watchmaker: Why the Evidence of Evolution Reveals a Universe Without Design
- The Case for a Creator: A Journalist Investigates Scientific Evidence That Points Toward God
- The Constitution of the Roman Republic
- The Craft of Scientific Presentations: Critical Steps to Succeed and Critical Errors to Aviod
- The End of Faith: Religion, Terror, and the Future of Reason
- The Federalist Papers (Signet Classics)
- The God Effect: Quantum Entanglement, Science's Strangest Phenomenon
- The Intention Experiment: Using Your Thoughts to Change Your Life and the World
- The Language of God: A Scientist Presents Evidence for Belief
- The Language of God: A Scientist Presents Evidence for Belief
Books Index
Books Home
Recommended Books
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- Knowledge Representation: Logical, Philosophical, and Computational Foundations: Logical, Philosophi
- A New World Order: Grassroots Movements for Global Change
- Letters To His Son, 1753-54, 1756-58
- Trees of New York State, Native and Naturalized
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World
The 4-Hour Workweek: Escape 9-5, Live Anywhere, and Join the New Rich
Way of the Turtle: The Secret Methods that Turned Ordinary People into Legendary Traders
A Demon of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds, and the Perils of Financial Innovation
